It's a brave new world, thanks to a coalition of lawmakers across the party spectra. Some thoughts on the politics of it all:
SuperShap. Speaker Smith didn't have a lot to lose on this, despite the Governor's taunting. Douglas never gets his vetoes overridden in the House, how would the spankin' new Speaker pull it off given the under-the-two-thirds-bar on the original votes? People would have been glum, but unsurprised. Of course, he did pull it off, and you could hear the sound of jaws dropping statewide from folks who were not so closely following the vote count. If reality follows perception (which of course in politics, it does), Smith just became the 800 lb gorilla in the policy arena in Vermont in a way Symington never was, and that may well mark the fastest ascension I've ever seen.
- Smith's gain is Shumlin's gain. Shumlin has had a Senate supermajority for some time, but its full potential power has always been stymied by the lack of same in the House. Shumlin, too, has graduated to 800 lb gorilla status – and with his high-profile work on this issue, may have just locked up some important alliances and goodwill going into a potential Democratic gubernatorial primary.
- Do we owe Emerson Lynn a big chunk of credit, here? St. Albans Rep Jeff Young provided the key vote, after Sonny Audette was reportedly a no-show for health reasons (hmmm…). Young, of course, voted against the bill initially and surprised a lot of people by voting for the override. In socially conservative St. Albans, one wonders if the surprise St. Albans Messenger editorial from editor and conservative standard bearer Emerson Lynn – where he actually endorsed same-sex marriage – may have provided Young enough psychological wiggle room to do the right thing. I guess we'll never know.
- As for Young, we should show him some love, as his stated reason for making the last minute change is an… odd… one at best, and isn't going to help take any of the pressure off him:
He said he continued to be philosophically opposed to gay marriage, but decided that voting with his fellow Democrats would help him be an effective legislator in the future.
- Lots of folks seem to be worried that this will all play well for Douglas, with some even going so far as to suggest this is all part of his master plan. Heh. No way. Douglas is a manipulator, but in a…shall we say…. macro way. He's not a fine-tuned kinda puppet master. And sure, this, to large extent, takes the matter off the table for next year's election, but considering how energized and empowered the Dems and Progs are feeling on this, as well as the public perception that the opposition is now a force to be reckoned with, its easily a net loss for Douglas – who brought this on himself with the strangely timed veto announcement that provided rhetorical cover for no-voting Democrats to switch their votes. Thanks, Jim.
- Will there be consequences? And no, I don't mean to yes voters, I mean to no voters. Douglas announced his intention to veto based on the historic truism that this issue has never been a litmus test for moderate and left voters the way it is for right-wing voters – but given the changing political dynamic is, that really true for everyone anymore, particularly Representatives Atkins and Bissonnette in Winooski? Sure Winooski has a more conservative demographic than Burlington, and Atkins and Bissonnette are institutions, but there are plenty of signs that the city has been steadily turning more to the left in recent years, so I wonder if its not out of the question that this may come back to haunt them. What do you folks think? Will it? Should it?
- Cynthia
BrowningWhining. No-vote Dem Cynthia Browning of Arlington complained to the press about the pressure she was receiving to change her vote. Yeah, that'll help your relations with the caucus and the leadership even more. A tip: when you're stuck in a hole, first rule is to stop digging.
One of the biggest points: this would not have passed without the support of some notable Republicans, including House GOP leader Patty Komline.
This could spell trouble for Democrats going forward – i.e. the Republicans are moving in a more moderate direction and will start to compete for the hearts and minds of many open-minded voters who have been voting for Democrats in the last several years.
I’d put them pretty high.
The first is that photo of Shap. That is frighteningly hilarious!
Secondly (and this is truly frightening), I believe the main factor behind Douglas vetoing this bill is the fact that he wants to represent Vermont in DC someday. Had he offended the national Republican machine (PAC funds in particular) by a yay vote, there is no way in hades they would support his bid to unseat Peter or that (gasp!) socialist, Bernie. And don’t you think the R’s would just love to get rid of any of the three troublemakers we have in DC right now?
This just occurred to me as well: My second paragraph aside, let’s face it. Jim Douglas’s nose is so far up the butts of the Republican power brokers, run or no run, how could he have ever voted in support? The back-channel national party ramifications were greater than those he faces in VT. Obviously, Jimbo was between a rock and a hard place, but I suspect his decision was based solely on an analysis of the ramifications–and the ramifications from his out-of-state buddies are greater than those he faces here at home.
Just thinking aloud. Great post, John.
BD
We know who did the heavy lifting!
I think there might also be some comeuppance in store for Adams (down in Hartland/W.Windsor) — I read a Valley News article a couple weeks back that he was basically refusing to listen to constituents on the issue — and also for my own legislator, Ainsworth, of Windsor-Orange 1.
Ainsworth won re-election by only 44 votes this last time around, and then ducked all public input on this. And as a selectman in town, I can say that I’ve talked to quite a few people in town and know he may well have misjudged on this. I got one email after yesterday’s vote from a not-very-politically-active person in town just fuming, saying they were determined to actively work against him next year. I have a suspicion he may be going down.
I think we need Anthony Pollina in 2010
Why Doyle flipped his vote?
You’ve had a long and distinguished career Bill. Sorry you had to tarnish it this way.
A representative was on a conservative talk radio show today saying that he felt Lippert violated house rules for voting on same sex marriage when he was directly involved with Freedom to Marry. The representative said that there is talk amoung some of possibly taking action on the alligation of violating a house ethics rule. Also, there is talk of some trying to pass a constitutional ban on same sex marriage. What are the chances of anything coming out on this? Is it feasiable that Lipperts vote won’t be able to be counted and the bill wont become law after all?
I know this is coming from a whacky right wing radio show but is any of this even possible, just wondering?
Now that we have won the marriage question, I wonder if health care should be next. Would Shap be that 800lb gorilla behind Douglas’s back on this issue as well or would the insurance lobby be able to buy the legislature off this time like they did the last time? Will Shap be able to stand up to them, to the governor, like he did here? Time to try.
I don’t think anyone has mentioned this so far, but in the original Senate vote, we even got a majority of the Senate Republicans to support this legislation.
To me, that’s pretty damned impressive.
Anthony really has proven himself as a politician or a responsible citizen. He’s a spoiler and if he had the decency as a responsible politician he would help defeat Douglas instead of abetting him in getting reelected.
I’d like to change my vote on the poll from “Approve” to “Holy Shit!”