“monotonicity”
Here’s a definition one of the monotonists have put out there: “Monotonicity: If choice X is a winner of an election and, in a reelection, the only changes in the ballots are changes that only favor X, then X should remain a winner of the election.”
Some of our local monotonists, Wes and his apparent favorite anti-IRV website specifically, have even advanced the notion that if we fiddle with people’s voting patterns and apply a very specific number of one candidate’s votes to another candidate … why we can change the results of the election!
Okay, I already knew changing the vote count could change the election. BUT WES AND COMPANY ARE BUSY TRYING TO LURE YOU INTO A FALSE SENSE OF MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY ABOUT A FALSE ISSUE!
What the monotonists fail to tell you is that the primary purpose of instant runoff voting is a runoff. That means unless there is a first round winner, the number of votes a candidate receives is relevant only so far as to whether or not that candidate advances to the next round.
Once in the second round the vote count makes no distinction between “first” or “second” choices … everybody’s top choice in the existing field of candidates is counted equally.
But the monotonists would have us believe we should still count the “first” choice votes as being something more special than the “second” choice votes in a runoff. And they will repeat the monotonicity mantra with fervor … drumming on our heads that their claim has some real application.
Here’s the trick … we already know that the candidate who finished in the lead but didn’t win a mandated majority contest is not necessarily the one who will win the final election. That’s for a simple reason … people who can’t have their preferred candidate might want to vote for someone other than the first round top vote getter.
So monotonists will happily inform us they have a scenario THEY COOKED UP IN THEIR OWN IMAGINATIONS where Kiss could have received more first round votes then he did in reality and yet have lost the election!
But we know that everybody’s top choice of existing candidates in the second round of voting is counted equally. Nobody’s vote is counted as more meaningful than another’s. In the second round of vote counting you’re vote for Montrol is a vote no matter if you ranked Montrol first or second. THE RANKING ITSELF IS ENTIRELY IRRELEVANT TO THE VOTE COUNT!
A second scam being perpetrated by the monotonists is their claimed special ability to measure levels of preference without ever asking folks.
For example: monotonists will add up first and second and third place votes in an attempt to tell us which candidate was preferred above another. The idea being that rating one candidate above another indicates the preference.
What they can’t do is tell you if person A really didn’t have a preference and just arbitrarily put one ahead of the other or if person A really had a large preference for one candidate over another. And they can’t come close to any of the shades of preference folks express by different rankings … is it large, small, insignificant? To the monotonists those gradations are all equal numbers they can present with mathematical certainty. The monotonists will inform you that an unmeasured quantity can be presented as measured.
Certainly, if we entertain the monotonists imagination and take 700 some odd first place votes from Wright’s column and arbitrarily transfer those first round votes to Kiss, there is a scenario where Kiss would not have been elected.
But that is because Montrol would have garnered a majority of support that Kiss wasn’t able to. Not because of some failure due to “monotonicity”, but because in the second or third round of voting, people who picked someone other than Montrol or Kiss as their top one or two choices picked Montrol over Kiss.
And that is what instant runoff voting is all about after all, the electorate getting to tell the vote counters who the electorate wants.