It looks like whatever illness kept all the potential Dem candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor hiding for so long in the ’08 cycle has been fought off. This email is making the rounds of Democratic County Chairs in the state:
Dear County Chairs,
As Doug Racine starts his campaign for governor, he would first like to get around and visit all the county committees and the rank and file Democrats. I told Doug I would help him set up some of these appointments.
Please let me know when your next county committee meeting is. Doug would like to come and visit and engage in a conversation on issues and on the 2010 governor’s race.
Thanks.
-mary sullivan
Racine, of course, is the only candidate who has ever given Douglas a run for his money in a gubernatorial contest – losing by a mere 2.5 percent (and that was with a strong third candidate in Con Hogan pulling 9.7%, as well as an unsanctioned Progressive – Michael Badamo – who pulled 0.6%). Douglas is clearly stronger now, but so is Racine after his own political rebirth. The former Lieutenant Governor pulls terrific numbers in the more conservative Chittenden County burbs that always end up kicking our statewide candidates’ asses against Douglas and Dubie – stronger numbers than he even had in the old days.
And having Mary Sullivan on his side sure doesn’t hurt. There are factions and divisions within the Democratic Party in Vermont, but Sullivan’s long history with the institution and its players at every level make her not simply a “faction-straddler,” but likely the faction-straddler. In the Democratic Party, everybody likes Mary, and that likely makes her unique in the VDP (scratch that – I’m hearing email complaints about her after writing that. Ah, Democrats..).
One can make the case that Markowitz, Spaulding, Shumlin or Dunne (and others) could defeat Douglas, but in each of those cases, there is an element of faith built into the case. Racine remains the only potential candidate for whom the case can be made with math. That’s not to say its a perfectly linear equation, but the numbers are there historically to make the case for a Racine candidacy, as I made in more detail a year ago.
And as a numbers guy myself, that gets me feeling pretty good. More analysis on this tomorrow.