I think we've had some excellent discussions on GMD this week. Set aside the hostility, hurt feelings, and recriminations, and people are genuinely engaged in the real questions, including how we get more liberal candidates elected to office in Vermont. I'm starting up a new thread to try to move the discussion along.
A couple of initial thoughts.
First, I know that calling someone a “spoiler” hurts some people's feelings. You might think that this alone means we shouldn't use it, but I disagree. I think there are definitely occasions where it is appropriate and meaningful (anyone here remember Ralph Nader in 2000, or Paul Poirier in 1988?). The fact that I'm calling someone a spoiler doesn't mean I'm “stealing your vote” either.
Still, it's blindingly obvious that there was no spoiler in this year's gubernatorial election. Any time the winner takes 55% of the votes, neither losing candidate deprived any other losing candidate of enough votes to win.
Second, although the party bosses (see how I was able to type that with a straight face?) don't control everything, I do think David has a point that if the two parties could coordinate our efforts more we could avoid electoral conflicts that harm our common interests. After all, we've been known to be at least a little critical of their decisions to run candidates who turn out to be nothing but spoilers, so they could do the same to us.
The question, then, is how we can move forward on our common goals without asking the members of either party to abandon their identity or just cave on demand, and I have a couple of ideas for that.
When Anthony Pollina was saying he was considering a run for governor, and saying that he wanted the support of the Democratic Party, I suspect I wasn't the only person who pointed out to him that the most straightforward way to do it would be to enter the Democratic primary and win.
He wasn't willing to do this, in part because of 17 V.S.A. § 2353(b). It says, “A person's name shall not be listed as a candidate on the primary ballot of more than one party in the same election.” This means that if he had run in the Democratic primary he would have been prohibited from running in the Progressive primary, and at the time this was not an acceptable choice to him.
If it had been possible this year Pollina could have run in both the D and P primaries, probably won them both, and he would have gotten his wish–a head to head race against Douglas. We could accomplish by repealing this section. It's only been on the books since 1977, and as far as I can tell it's never been cited in any reported decision of the Vermont Supreme Court or any other court. This change also wouldn't take a constitutional amendment, so it should be easier to accomplish than instituting IRV. What it would do, though, is create the conditions for fusion candidates, generally between D's and P's in Vermont, but potentially involving other third parties.
I'd like to see legislators from both the Democratic and Progressive Parties get behind legislation to repeal this section, preferably during the first year of the coming biennium, so that we can get at least the possibility of a head to head race between Douglas and the strongest liberal candidate, whether that's Pollina, Zuckerman, Racine, or somebody else.
Next, I like the idea of moving to a system in which there are no minority winners for statewide elections (and potentially for legislative races as well), whether IRV or some other system. Why are people so heavily invested in IRV? Why not set up a runoff election, the way they do in some states, if no candidate receives a majority?
Although I'm not an expert in voting theory, the reading I have done suggests that IRV might set up some circumstances in which a less popular candidate defeates a more popular one, which we would presumably want to avoid.
As I understand it, the main arguments in favor of IRV instead of a runoff election are cost and the dropoff in turnout that would be expected in a second election. I'm not convinced that either of these is a really good argument against it, though. With regard to cost I would say that getting a democratic outcome is more important than the incremental cost of holding a second-round election.
I'm also probably less concerned about a dropoff in turnout than some people, mainly because I don't care that much about protecting the electoral positions of people who can't be bothered to come out and vote. They're not disenfranchised, just lazy, uninformed, or unconcerned. If they don't vote, they've made the choice to let the rest of us decide who will govern them.
These two changes, eliminating the one-primary rule, and allowing for some kind of runoff, won't fix everything. They won't, for example, guarantee that a single ambitious individual won't run for office even when the party leadership prefers to stay out of a particular race. What they will do, though, is create the possibility for the supporters of a primary loser to line up behind the primary winner, potentially after extracting commitments from the winner, and united to defeat a candidate that the supporters of both chalengers agree is the greater of two evils.
Because really, the clearest thing you can say about two candidates, one of whom got 21.3% and one of whom got 21.7%, is that they both lost.