(Since this seems to be the most relevant diary right now, I’m bumping it up to the top. – promoted by JulieWaters)
A lot of lefties are waking up this morning feeling all dressed up with nowhere to go, as there will be no legislative showdown for the Governorship after all. Here are the numbers so far via WCAX:
Douglas, Jim 149314 54.4%
Pollina, Anthony 58984 21.5%
Symington, Gaye 58308 21.3%
It’s fairly self-evident that bragging rights for the second place slot were going to be significant, but as it stands so far, Pollina and Symington have virtually the same vote count, with only 676 votes (or .2 percent) separating them. If these votes hold (and they will change somewhat) it’s interesting to compare these results to Pollina’s results in 2002, where he came in third to Dubie and Shumlin with 56564 votes or 24.8%, meaning he increased his vote by 2420 votes or 4.3 percent, which will likely not be near the increase in actual turnout. The mind boggles at what the numbers might have been if they had run someone like Zuckerman who didn’t come with the kind of polarizing baggage that will clearly continue to hardwire Pollina from ever achieving the top spot (Zuckerman, by the way, was the top vote getter in his own district, but will be joined in the statehouse by Democrat Kesha Ram who handily defeated incumbent Progressive Chris Pearson).
So although I do have a nasty stomach bug, I can’t help but wonder if what was really making me nauseous was watching the return of much-loved Chris Graff to the pundit-waves. Graff waxed all squooshy about how the “big story” of the election was his pal Jim Douglas, who’d managed to rise above the partisanship and unite Vermonters under his banner.
Graff, of course, is an old Middlebury pal of Douglas’s, and as the dean of the Vermont Press Corps, always set the tone among the fourth estate that allowed Douglas to get off the hook for everything. He was clearly making up for lost time here.
Because the big story of the night was obviously the unprecedented collapse of the Symington effort. Symington, whose unfavorables tripled from 15% to 45% in a month, leaving Pollina to pick up about three quarters of the fallout, and Douglas with the other quarter, pushing him over the top. Vermont, with its small population, has always had the potential to turn on a dime like this, but we’ve never seen it happen in my memory.
Why did it happen? Lots of reasons. Pollina’s challenge of the campaign finance law didn’t hurt him, and for the rest of the campaign he didn’t screw up, allowing him (and Douglas) to be beneficiaries of the collapse. Douglas’s negative attacks were obviously effective, but they were enabled by Symington’s bungling of the personal finances matter. Symington also ran a classic Democratic campaign – that is, she wasn’t chewing gum and walking at the same time. She spent a lot of time hammering Douglas, which we all wanted to see, but largely let up on trying to define herself right when the Douglas and Pollina defining of her began. Bad timing.
And there were lots of mysteries about the Symington campaign. WHy on Earth was there zero Symington visibility at the Montpelier polling place at 7:30 AM Election Morning? Somehow I doubt that was an isolated incident.
One thing for sure, if Pollina does what he’s reportedly talking about doing – announce his 2010 run this week – we’re all screwed. There is no way to look at these numbers and feel buoyed for yet another run, unless he and his supporters are simply fixated on the triumph of beating the Dem and aren’t looking clear-headedly at the overall numbers. Of course, we’ve had Progressive stalwarts on this website insisting that the very notion of such disproportionate glee is poppycock. I guess we’ll know more over the next few days.
There is much, much more to discuss (including some major concerns over the Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign this time around, and the damage that may have been inflicted on future election cycles), but let’s start with this.
In my opinion, the real failure for the Symington campaign does not lay entirely at Gaye Symington's feet. Even considering her performance as a candidate, I think that Democrats should be looking inward right now and begin to demand some dramatic changes in party leadership.
This means questioning the following people:
1. Ian Carleton. Where was the ED of the party throughout the campaign? Email newsletters aren't enough. The Democratic party leader needs to be out front, in the public eye and interviewing with the press during the final campaign months. Carleton was the invisible man. Additionally, it was Carleton's job to find a viable candidate for Vermont's #1 position, and it's pretty clear he failed in this capacity. It's the ED's job, if necessary, to strong-arm the best candidate to run. Carleton should have had a series of meetings attempting to woo and influence Jeb Spaulding, who could have beaten Douglas this year.
2. Peter Shumlin: Is this guy working for or against the party? Shumlin deserves to be put in a cage, politically speaking. It's time to demote him from the position of Senate Pro-Tem where he's done more damage than good.
3. Jeb Spaulding: Jeb, even the most rigidly Republican old Vermonter in the entire state loves you. Why the no-show in 2008? Sure, you really like your job as Treasurer, but frankly, that's nothing more than a cop-out. You started stumping for 2010 at the Bennington County BBQ in Arlington even before this year's September primary was decided. Waiting for “the best time” during a time of crisis does not demonstrate leadership. Sure, you'll win in 2010. But you have sacrificed every Vermonter by allowing another two years of backward motion. Sometimes leadership requires risk, and you have proven yourself, along with Peter Shumlin, to prioritize your career over the needs of Vermonters. Thanks for nothing.
4. Certain Members of the Executive Committee: It's a huge political risk for me to challenge this influential group and I'm sure I will pay the consequence for doing so. It's your job to hold the party's Executive Director accountable to tangible achievements. You need to expect more. A lot more. Cozy friendships will not advance the interests of the Vermont Democratic Party. Outcomes first; relationships second. If you hired a manager who let the company fall on its face, what do you think would be the appropriate course of action?
5. Ourselves: Why do we put up wi th this crap?