In yesterday’s installment, we drove around the world on dollar bills.
Today we’re going to play 2 more games: “Barrel Full o’ Dollars” and “One of These Days, Alice!”
Let’s start with the easy one.
Go get all the money you have in your house – dollar bills, pennies, whatever. Do me a favor and bring the coins to the bank and get ’em changed into bills – they get heavy. As a matter of fact, get everything converted into singles. Get everyone in your family to do the same.
Count that money.
Let’s say you have 100 dollars. Keep $7 of it, and put the other $93 into that big red wheelbarrow I’ve conveniently placed by your front door.
OK, I’m now taking the wheelbarrow to your neighbor’s house, and waiting while he does the same thing. Then to the next house, and so on. If I pass any homeless people, I’m taking their money, too. Ditto for apartment dwellers.
Done.
I’ve now got the biggest wheelbarrow to ever grace the face of the Earth. It’s REALLY big. This wheelbarrow is more than 250 feet wide, 200 feet deep, and 450 feet tall – plus a little extra for the handles and wheel.
Being about the size of a NYC block full ‘o skyscrapers, it’s a bit tipsy. Next time I’ll get one that’s wider and not so tall, and maybe add some more wheels…
There are 300 million people in the US, and I just took almost every penny they had – $0.93 from every $1. If everyone in the your family combines what’s left (unless you’re one of the homeless folks), you may be able to squeeze a nice last dinner out of the remainder.
What I took is $700,000,000,000.
Does that number look familiar?
It’s the amount being asked for in the bailout. Ironically, it turns out that there is currently $750,000,000,000 in circulation as cash in our economy.
Of course, since that $700,000,000,000 is a moving window, I should have taken the rest of your cash – because it will be taken as soon as the treasury gets around to it after the first round of bailing.
One interesting thing to note about the chart – it’s hard to see, but between roughly 1992 and 1999 there was a little bit of a plateau in the printing of money – it slowed a bit.
Then it skyrocketed again.
This means a couple of things – the treasury is using a LOT of ink (barrels full), and the “stable” stock market has actually been losing value due to inflation (let’s pretend it didn’t take a bath last week).
The stock market has been hovering around the same level for the entire Bush administration. Sometimes it spikes higher, sometimes it drops lower, but generally it stays in the same neighborhood. Maybe it has agoraphobia?
Anyway, the Dow, for example, has been somewhere around $10,000. It’s a nice round number to work with, so let’s use it.
If on November 2, 2000, you invested $10,000 in a fund that holds all 30 stocks traded on the Dow Jones, today you’d have had roughly $10,080 with little bumps up and down for the last 8 years.
Or would you? See, the Dow’s value isn’t listed in inflation-adjusted dollars.
That $10,000 in the Dow in 2008 is worth $7,860 year 2000 dollars. You’ve lost $2,140 in purchasing power. Oops!
But enough of that. I’m ready for a new Apollo Project…
Yesterday I mentioned the $10,000,000,000,000 (ten trillion) dollars of bets known as over-the-counter derivatives. They are in trouble, because an awful lot of these bets were bets that housing values would continue to go up. Then housing prices went down. So now a very large percentage of those bets went in favor of the house, and the bettors don’t have the cash to pay off their bookies.
Well, the casino has another cool game that became all the rage in the last few years: CDSs – Credit Default Swaps. You can kind of figure out their purpose from their name: If you give someone credit, and they default, you can swap it for something else. It’s insurance on debt – if the debt goes bad, the folks you bought the insurance from will make it up to you.
So say you loan your brother $10 and he doesn’t pay you back. If you bought a CDS at the same time, then the folks you bought the CDS from will pay you something equivalent to $10. (It may not be actual dollars, it could be some bonds, or something else of equivalent value.)
So let’s say that every time anyone who knew about this “insurance” bought insurance every time they issued or purchased debt, debt like the mortgage sludge on the merry-go-round, debt like municipal bonds, debt like credit card debt or car loans. Really, any debt instrument at all.
How much money in these CDS insurance policies would be floating around out there?
I’ll give you a hint: $62,000,000,000,000 ($62 trillion).
If you took each of those dollar bills and taped them together end-to-end, you could make a dollar bill rope 31,000,000,000,000 feet long (31 trillion – note: I’ve chopped .14″ off each bill to make them an even 6″). I’ll make it double-thickness, so it’ll be nice and sturdy. Now it’s only 15,500,000,000 (15.5 trillion) feet long.
I don’t know if you recall, but a few years ago, Bush proposed sending a manned space-craft to Mars. The moon had worked out so well for Kennedy, he figured that he’d be even MORE popular if he got someone to Mars, which is much further away (120 million miles). Apparently, Bush didn’t “get” that the whole purpose of the moon mission was to perfect the ability to get a rocket out of the atmosphere and back into the atmosphere – which would be necessary for long-range warheads. Sadly for Bush, going to Mars would do exactly nothing to further any technological needs, so no one wanted to do it – not even NASA… But I digress.
Since there’s no useful technological purpose to sending a manned rocket to Mars, we may as well save the rocket fuel.
Let’s get a Mars rover to tape one end of our double-thickness $62,000,000,000,000 rope to Mars.
The only problem: the rope would be WAAAAY too long. We could make 129 ropes that stretched all the way from Earth to Mars, and have a whole bunch left over.
Back to the Credit Default Swaps:
Every time a debt goes bad, someone is owed a piece of that 15-trillion foot long double-thick rope.
The 15-trillion foot long double-thick rope is not sitting in a bank vault (or even several thousand bank vaults) ready to be paid out if something goes wrong. As a matter of fact, most of it doesn’t even exist (remember there’s only one-bailout’s worth of actual printed cash in the entire economy).
It’s just a promise. A handshake. A deal between two people.
And now a lot of debts are going bad. Houses. Car loans. Credit Cards.
People are losing their ability to pay, and they’re defaulting in record numbers. Heck, an entire city recently declared bankruptcy.
And there isn’t enough money in existence to pay those insurance awards.
Oops.
So, instead of explaining this all to us, and letting the gamblers hang themselves with their own rope, the bettors on Wall Street are trying to suck money out of our pockets to pay it all off in “small” chunks consisting of nearly every dollar in circulation.
Be sure to savor that meal you bought with your last $7.