Finally. A poll!!! Man, I feel so much better now. And waddayaknow… all those people telling me I was mistaken for referring to Anthony Pollina as “Mr. 8%” were right after all. Just not in the way they meant.
Let’s look at the basics as reported by WCAX. (We’ll work on getting the crosstabs and mining a little deeper ASAP)
With the election less than two months away, a Channel 3 News Poll shows Republican Jim Douglas has 48 percent of the vote, Democrat Gaye Symington at 33 percent and Independent Anthony Pollina with 7 percent. 12 percent are undecided.
No surprises, unfortunately. For a while on this blog and off, we’ve been saying the first poll would likely be around 50-35-10-5. I just wish I’d been wrong about that.
All three candidates are a bit lower than I would’ve expected, and the undecideds are higher, which is the big story here. the WCAX report doesn’t give details, but their usual go-to polling firm is Maryland’s Research 2000. Last time, they used a sample size of 400, which was an extremely low sample size. Usually, 600 is considered minimum – with only 400, you’re looking at a whopping 5% margin of error. Short of having the data to look at (when I get it I’ll post something new), let’s just work through the WCAX report…
(UVM Political Scientist Garrison) Nelson says Pollina’s single digit number could be moving up; the poll was done before several endorsements, including one by the teachers’ union this week.
It’d be nice to think so, but we’re looking at four consecutive cycles of gubernatorial races where the recipient of union endorsements – in both two and three person races – seemed to receive no bump from such endorsements. If they had, we’d probably be looking at a different Governor by now. As such, I’d say looking for a bump is wishful thinking.
The incumbent has a 48 percent favorable rating, 43 percent unfavorable.
This is significant, and by all rights should be scary for Douglas. It continues a trend we saw vividly laid out in last year’s poll, and suggests that trend is accelerating. AT that earlier poll, Douglas’s re-elect numbers were in the low 40’s, but his positives were still in the 60’s. That right there represented a significant drop off from previous years, but now we see that the positives are giving way to inevitability and moving to match his re-elect numbers, rather than the other way around. Bad, bad news for Jim Douglas’s political future, at least in the long term.
Unfortunately, that erosion isn’t translating to approval for his opponents. Instead, its translating to the undecided column. SO where will those undecideds break? For that, we look to the favorable/unfavorables of his opponents:
Gaye Symington has a 37 percent favorable rating, 15 percent unfavorable, and 48 percent have no opinion.
Anthony Pollina has 41 percent favorability, with 33 percent unfavorable, and 26 percent had no opinion.
Symington and Pollina both have comparable approval numbers. Pollina’s are higher, but (presumably) within the margin of error. But his unfavorables are double Symington’s, and his “no opinion” is 22% lower. This tells us a couple things: one, that Symington’s name recognition is still lagging Pollina’s, and two that voters are more inclined to dislike him than Symington by a significant amount. Remember – if that discrepancy were only due to Pollina’s advantage in name recognition, you’d expect the favorables to show a similar spread, but their favorables are equal even given the recognition gap.
And this is the best news for Symington. It means that people likely aren’t feeling as negatively toward the legislature (and by extension Symington) as both the Douglas and Pollina camps keep insisting. It also means that if she can boost her name recognition, more of those undecideds will break her way than Pollina’s.
And Douglas needs to worry about something else – namely, breaking that 50% limit and keeping this out of the legislature, where long-frustrated Dems might well hand the election to their Speaker. All things being equal, one would expect many – probably most – of those undecideds to break Douglas’s way. But looking at this poll combined with the previous one suggests downward momentum for Douglas, which makes those undecideds a very shaky bet for him.
More as I get data…