( – promoted by odum)

sent on Thursday July 10

Tonight’s WCAX broadcast included a piece on the new population / demographic data from the Census Bureau. The reporter said, “The census estimates showing anemic growth are reflected in another reality. Vermont’s work force is shrinking — down by 2000 in just the last year alone. Without some kind of upturn, that points to stagnation in Vermont’s economy.”

I’m afraid Mr.Potter is confusing cause and effect and does not understand the data.

First, the “workforce” is not the “labor force” and the “labor force” is not population.

The “workforce” is only those who are “employed”, which includes the self-employed and those working without pay in family businesses. This is not the same as jobs. The number of “employed” Vermonters has declined by 5,400 in the last year. It is the “labor force” that has declined by 2,000, not the workforce.

Note: The number of jobs during the same period is flat. This is not great news but illustrates the sometimes confusing difference between the “workforce” and jobs.

Second, the “labor force” (a term of art for the Census Bureau) only includes those who are working and those who have looked for work in the last four weeks. Not surprisingly, when the job market goes south, many people who want and need work stop looking until circumstances improve. If so, they are no longer considered part of the “labor force” (curious how people can be made invisible). Thus, the “labor force” may decline even though the working age population increases.

In any case, the decline in the “labor force” has nothing to do with population.

The number of Vermonters ages 18 to 64 has increased by over 7,000 during the last five years (estimated to be over 405,000 in July 2007).

In addition, many Vermonters age 65 and over continue to work.  National data shows that labor participation rates for older Americans have grown considerably in the last 15 years (34% of men and 24% of women ages 65 – 69 work).

Bottom line: There is no shortage of potential workers; only a shortage of jobs.

The report quoted the Vermont Commerce Secretary Kevin Dorn that “this is just further validation of what Governor Douglas has been saying for years now,” Dorn said, “which is, we’re faced with a declining work force. And what does that mean for our future economic development in this state.”

It is not “validation” – it is just spin. This is a convenient excuse for the failures of this administration. The number of working aged Vermonters is growing. The “labor force” and the “workforce” have declined because we’re in a recession and because there aren’t enough decent jobs. This has been going on for quite some time and has nothing to do with population changes.

It is disturbing that major media outlets do not seek information and perspectives from independent economists and other analysts. With respect, Kevin Dorn is not an economist or a demographer. He is a paid appointee of a governor running for re-election who has not lived up to the promise of Jim = Jobs. Why not contact the Legislature’s economist and get another perspective? When did it become sufficient for a journalist to quote an administration official (during a campaign for goodness sake) without any “balance”. And shouldn’t reporters get a better handle on the data before tackling such important subjects?

Viewers and readers deserve better.  

There is something the Governor of our state of Vermont is really good at. It’s taking a very unfortunate occurance and turning it into political gain. In a small state like ours, big news like our first amber alert had everybody concerned. Everyone watched, everyone waited, what would be the missing girls fate?

Then a disappearance turns into one families horror, and a statewide travesty. A convicted sexual predator, was released into the public on probation by our department of corrections. Released after completing the sex offender treatment program, where he was a “model inmate” and hailed as a success. Apparently the program doesn’t work, after his release he reportedly begins molesting a nine year old, and within a couple years effectively stalked and hunted his own niece. The abrupt and tragic end to her life is a testament to the failure of our state corrections and sex offender treatment program.

Here we are in an election year and a hot button issue lands in Governor Douglas’s lap. So what does he do, he picks it up and runs with it. Now he’s talking about civil confinement, the death penalty, and even chemical castration. Do I disagree, hell no!! This is one of the few instances where I actually agree with the governor. I don’t think we can ever go far enough with regards to protecting our kids.

However, there is nothing I hate worse than people who use tragedies for political gain. This is exactly the card Douglas is playing now. He is not calling a special session of the legislature because “”If I thought for a minute that the legislative leaders would embrace a serious package of reforms that we have talked about this afternoon, I’d have them here tomorrow,” Douglas replied. “Their past action does not give me a lot of confidence that in the aggregate they are prepared to take these steps.”” (BFP 7/11/08)

This is playing politics pure and simple. If the legislature were to meet, and pass the reforms he talks about, than the issue would go away. But this is an election year, and he can’t let it go away. He needs to keep beating this drum right thru November so he can sound tough on crime and make the Democratic legislature sound weak on crime. If the legislature is weak on crime, than his opponent who led that legislature is also weak on crime. It’s the forked tongue that Douglas speaks with that spews a whole lot of BS.

Governor Douglas, get off your butt and call a special session or get off the high horse. Take steps now to solve this obviously important issue before another kid gets hurt. Otherwise the failure here won’t just be corrections released someone who was a danger to the public. It will be a failure of the governor to protect the people, and more importantly kids, of his state.  

Here’s a great still from an actual news broadcast the other night:

Now that’s some good teevee.

cross-posted on iBrattleboro.com:

“We need leaders to speak out forthrightly to end the war in Iraq and for the need to bring our troops home immediately. We also need new leadership to address the critical threat to the loss of our democratic rights and freedoms. Americans’ rights are being threatened by our own government who seem to believe they are above the law…

“We need to be a country that adheres to the principles of international law, constitutional rights and humane principles of fairness, honesty and mutual respect. Equal rights for all needs to be reinforced and practiced better.

“Corporate-occupied Washington needs to be challenged vigorously by weeding out the influence of money and corporate power and fighting for America’s forgotten lower and middle-classes. Corporate welfare and the corrupting influence of money in American politics needs to cease. Citizens’ rights and powers need to be enhanced and protected. Poverty needs to be eliminated and a more equitable system of housing, health care, education and work needs to be implemented…

“New proposals should include offering a national health plan for all Americans, and that it be offered as a right and not just a privilege of class or employment…

“The arts, athletic and sports activities and culture need to be a more essential part of America as well. The United States also needs to become more self-sufficient in its manufacturing capacity and agricultural production and less dependent on foreign customers. Heavy spending in the defense industry needs to be reduced, especially on high technology planes, tanks, ships and weaponry, while better support of the needs of soldiers during and after their time of service should be a high priority.

“Better and more diplomacy, fairer foreign and economic policies and the elimination of special interest influence should be the guiding principles of our nation. Self-interest actions or policies, at the expense of fairness, honesty and mutual respect and human decency should be a thing of the past.”

Any guesses?

McCain struggles to answer why men can get Viagra covered by health care insurance, but women cannot get contraception covered.

If anything can create a gender gap for Obama it is increasing awareness of McCain’s inability to understand the issue of reproductive freedom and how men and women are treated differently. Not just on the abortion issue, but in terms of contraception and women’s health care generally. There is a double-standard here that must be addressed and McCain just doesn’t get it.

Oh, and I’m thinking there are a lot of bad puns out there on this one…

UPDATE #4:

The NRC has issued a fairly rare Sunday press release.  As reported in evacuationplans.org, the document begins:

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission launched a special inspection Sunday into the circumstances surrounding Friday’s leak in one of the cooling towers at the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant in Vernon, Vt., sending structural specialists to the plant.  The inspectors will begin work at the site Monday.

UPDATE #3:

Two updates.  First, the plant is apparently operating at 25%.  Furthermore, VT Yankee spokesman Rob Williams told the associated press (coming to us via the Rutland Herald) that:

“It appears that that broken or degraded bracket was not due to decay but appears to be related to stresses in the design of the new interface between the bracket and the previously replaced column in that area.”

Now, I’m not sure whether we should believe Williams or not, but the idea that the current problems are caused because they didn’t know how to fix the previous problems just sort of fits.

Here’s the rest of the story, as it was posted over the weekend:

Okay– this is what I understand to be going on: VY is operating at 40% 47% under 50% capacity (I keep hearing different numbers, but they’re all in the 40-50% range) due to some serious problems in the cooling towers.  Here’s Symington’s statement:

How many more times will we have to learn about maintenance issues at Vermont Yankee before Jim Douglas presents a plan for transitioning to other sources of power if this aging plant has to be shut down?

After last year’s collapse in part of the cooling system at Vermont Yankee, we were assured that a full-scale review was done of the wooden support structures and the problem had been fixed. Yet here we are again dealing with rotting wood in the cooling system. How can Vermonters have confidence in the ability of Entergy to maintain that plant if the same failures keep occurring?

Vermont’s business community needs to know that this major source of power is reliable. Vermonters need to know that it is safe. This incident underlines the need to have an independent assessment of Vermont Yankee and raises further questions about the wisdom of continuing to rely so heavily on it as major part of our power supply.

Here’s a report which hasn’t been posted online yet, but was forwarded via a whistleblower.  If I can find a clear link I’ll update it later, but here’s what I’ve got.  This version had typos in it (which I’ve corrected) which suggest it’s a preliminary draft and is not perfect in this version.

CR-VTY-2008-02904

Damage to East Cooling Tower Celll CT-1-1

During routine monthly inspections of the cooling towers, the Auxiliary Operator reported observation of some structural degradation to the distribution piping on East side of CT-1-1. The distribution piping appears to be sagging and significant leakage was observed from slip-fit joint adjacent to where where the distribution piping enters the cell from the inlet riser pipe.

A number of saddle supports for the distribution piping in this area were observed to be damaged. Because of these observations the decision was made to reduce reactor power and take the East cooling tower out of service. Open cycle operation of the circulating water system was established and the inlet riser valves to the East cooling tower (CW-6A/B) were closed to isolate flow to the tower.

Inspections of the West cooling tower revealed additional damage to some of the saddles which support the distribution pipe in CT-2-3 and CT-2-4.. There was NO damage observed in either CT-2-1 or CT-2-2. Therefore, it [shall] be concluded that safety-related CT-2-1 is structurally sound and fully operable at this time..

This is a developing story.  As soon as we know more, we’ll post it.

I also find it interesting that just because there’s “no damage observed,” it’s suggested that CT-2-1 is fully sound and operational.  How long was damage not observed in the other towers before they got taken down?

In the meantime, I will just note that, yet again, we’re dealing with a major problem that’s forcing us to purchase power from out of state while Entergy fails to maintain basic standards of quality at its own plant.

It’s time we find a new power source for this state.  It’s been time for some time now.

UPDATE: more from other news sources below the fold.

The Brattleboro Reformer covered this today.  Here’s a choice quote:

Whether there is a sag in the distribution platform or if any structural members have collapsed, wrote Williams, is still under investigation. It is also unclear how long the pipe had been leaking, he stated.

I’m beginning to suspect that Williams got his PR training the same place that Jason Gibbs did.

Continuing in the reformer, Shumlin nails it:

“To me,” said Shumlin, “this is further evidence that Entergy Louisiana does not do business in the best tradition of the way we do business in Vermont. They tell you what they want to hear but (their talk) rarely matches the facts.”

Update #2: And here’s a choice quote from the Rutland Herald:

Vermont Yankee was at 46 percent power late Friday, and company spokesman Robert Williams said the plant was relying on water from the nearby Connecticut River to cool the plant’s condensers. He said the leak was discovered Friday morning during a regular inspection.

Williams only released information about the leak in the east tower and failed to mention the problems in the west tower, which partially collapsed last August.

How many more times will we have to learn about maintenance issues at Vermont Yankee before Jim Douglas presents a plan for transitioning to other sources of power if this aging plant has to be shut down?

Vermont’s business community needs to know that this major source of power is reliable. Vermonters need to know that it is safe. This incident underlines the need to have an independent assessment of Vermont Yankee and raises further questions about the wisdom of continuing to rely so heavily on it as major part of our power supply.

(How did a VY leak go under the radar??? – promoted by Christian Avard)

Small Leak Found in Vt. Yankee Cooling Tower

July 11, 2008

Vermont Yankee is operating at half its power because of a leak in a cooling tower. Plant officials say they discovered the leak Friday morning during a routine inspection. Officials are calling it a small leak of river water. They say it is not in the same cooling tower that collapsed last summer, but repairs were done at that time on both towers. The towers cool river water after it has been warmed in the plants steam condenser, it then returns to the river.  

Vermont Yankee does not know how long it will take to repair the new problem.

“This is a huge disappointment,” said Steve Wark, spokesman for the state Department of Public Service. “We were told the system was analyzed and this would not happen again. It calls into question their system maintenance program.” WCAX  my emphasis

Entergy’s Aging Vermont Yankee made unexpected record profits recently .The Gov.vetoed the bill for full decommissioning funding .The Gov.only reluctantly signed on to the Vertical Safety study .Only last week he criticized two appointments made by Democrats to that group. Today DPS’s Warks statement sounds like a FEMA flunky.Douglas’s full embrace of Entergy is a potent campaign issue waiting in plain site.  

I came across this surreal and shocking interview at Crooks & Liars. It was conducted by a tenacious reporter from Ireland, Carol Coleman. Coleman works for Radio Television Ireland and did an amazing interviews with George W. Bush. It was conducted before the 2004 election and all of a sudden, it just surfaced out of thin air. Apparently it never made the United States…. but many in Ireland saw it. Had Americans actually seen this prior to the 2004 election when it aired, Bush would not be president. That’s what Crooks & Liars say. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Did somebody back home suppress this? Who? How?

Watch for yourself and enjoy the weekend!

UPDATE: Ben Cohen of Huffington Post (not B & J ice cream) wrote this great piece yesterday re: the interview.