(Promoting this diary is my answer to the poll question at the end… – promoted by odum)
Future of the EU in question
This won’t make any of the U.S. papers, but hopefully GMD wonks will find it somewhat interesting
On Thursday, Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty, which would have redefined the European Union government. Essentially, the treaty would have shifted more power from European states to the central government in Brussels. Institutions such as the courts, banks, and military would have been centralized.
Proponents of the referendum said the new agreement would strengthen the central government; create greater efficiency (fewer state governments doing the same thing); standardize laws regarding human rights, labor, security; and provide greater economic security. Supporters of the measure, including political parties Fianna Fail, Finn Gael, and the Labour Party, among others, cited the European Union’s beneficial effect on Ireland and exhorted Irish voters not to “throw it all away.”
Short sidestory: My brother-in-law almost got fired from the Dublin County Council for “defacing” one of Mary Harney’s pro-treaty “don’t throw it all away” signs – he added a small sign at the bottom that said “… I’ll take half.” (Harney is derided for being the overweight minister for health) http://ocaoimh.ie/wp-content/u… (the photo just shows the signs, no my brother-in-law’s handiwork)
Opponents, including Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party, the democratic socialist Workers’ Party and Libertas, an non-partisan organization formed by a Galway businessman to oppose the treaty, argued that the current EU agreement was indeed beneficial to Ireland, and there was no reason to change it. They warned that it would rob Ireland of its sovereignty. Ireland’s famed neutrality would be forfeited, Irish men and women could be required to serve in a central army, and it would open the back door to European laws on marriage and abortion. (Abortion is illegal in Ireland. They prefer to go to GB or NI for abortions.)
From the EU’s beginning, Ireland has wielded unprecedented power and recieved unprecedented benefit – the treaty would have blunted Ireland’s influence in the EU government.
Perhaps the most significant argument against the treaty for many Irish voters was that it would give too much power to the central government to control taxation. Ireland’s stunning economic growth over the last decade-and-a-half has been fueled not only by massive investment by the EU, but by the thousands of businesses that have moved to Ireland to take advantage of their low business tax rate (12%). Few European countries offer low business taxes, superior technological and civil infrastructure, and a highly-educated population in one neat package.
Although proponents debunked many of the opponent’s claims, the “no” vote appears to have prevailed.
In order to pass, the treaty had to be ratified by all 27 EU member nations. In 26 of those countries, the treaty could be ratified by the representative government; Ireland was required by its constitution to put the question to the electorate. It has already been ratified by 15 members, and is expected to pass in the rest.
The consequences of the “no” vote are still unclear. While some say it will force the EU to continue under the current treaty, others warn that it may mean Ireland is squeezed out of the EU – which could be devastating to the country. When the Irish rejected an earlier EU treaty, it was brought up for a vote again two years later, after a substantial PR campaign. Many have complained that the treaty is too complex, and independent information on what would change has been sorely lacking. So it could come around again.
The no vote is a blow to German Chancellor Angele Merkel, who worked hard during her six-month term as EU President to broker a deal on the treaty. French President Nicolas Sarkozy was said to have been making plans to solidify the new EU government under the treaty during his upcoming term as EU President.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
The poll is mostly for my own edification