(crossposted on five before chaos)
Busy day today, so unfortunately I can't spend a bit more on this, but I was reading this article on CNN this morning that the Dept. of Transportation's latest figures have shown the steepest decline in driving in March since records were recorded:
Compared with March a year earlier, Americans drove an estimated 4.3 percent less — that's 11 billion fewer miles, the DOT's Federal Highway Administration said Monday, calling it “the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history.” Records have been kept since 1942.
This is good news. Now, I know, finding the silver lining in higher gas prices is not a popular notion in mainstream America. But aside from the obvious environmental benefit, there's something much deeper at work here, possibly a reorganization of American society.
Much of the hardship in America due to these prices is unmistakably due to one simple, “duh, obvious” fact: we've designed our entire society around the combustion engine, whether it be the way we live, the way our food is distributed, you name it. It's really a lack of long-term vision, something Americans in general have never had as a strong point. And I predict that $5 a gallon gas is going to make that obvious to even the most clueless, when people who live in tract-housing planned communities really start to realize that they do really live in the middle of nowhere. They have to drive to go everywhere, to do anything.
Now, I live 5 miles up a dirt road on a tiny mountain-hill thing. But I can still bike to numerous farms and such in town and get my food. Work will present a problem should I change jobs, as I work from home – but another positive with the gas prices is that I think we're going to start to see a huge influx in telecommuting jobs. There are a lot of office jobs in this country that really don't need to be in the office.
Some other plusses: I think developers (and potential homebuyers) might rethink the current patterns of development in this country – the cookie-cutter houses out in a former field, with all of the amenities available that can only be driven to. Perhaps a revitalization of downtowns on an epic scale is in the works, who knows?
Another plus – perhaps there won't be so much plastic produced anymore. Granted, transporting glass requires more energy, but if distribution networks get smaller, that won't be as much of an issue, either.
Now, I know it's easy to accuse me of ignoring the many hardships that these gas prices will involve (and I'm not even going to go into the concept that in terms of true cost, such as the dead soldiers and environmental factors , $7 a gallon gas is still a bargain). Any major paradigm shift is never painless. Some people will hurt more than others, and a few are going to be okay or perhaps even at an advantage because of the lifestyles they have chosen. And, yes, unfortunately, like everything else, the poor will be hit much harder than the rich. So it's going to be shitty.
But it's inevitable, and it's going to happen. We can't drill our way out of this mess, as much as many would like to. That's just more short-sightedness. Whatever we do, it's going to take some extremely forward-thinking, courageous leadership (not too common in the U.S.). I remember when Bush the first went to some enviro summit in South America years ago and gave the asinine line along the lines of “The American lifestyle is not negotiable.” Well, it's going to have to be, we're not going to have much say in the matter, shortly. That kind of arrogant behavior is what got us in this mess to begin with. It's not going to be pretty, especially when we have a huge portion of the population that doesn't even think about the impact their lifestyle of perpetual convenience has on the planet and society at large. It's something to both dread (short-term) and highly anticipate.
Once again, it's easy for me to be casual about this, living in the bubble of Vermont. But I'm well aware of how bad things can and possibly will get for everyone, and I don't dismiss that casually. I'm certainly not coming at if from a “that'll show 'em” mindset (although I feel zero sympathy for the guy that commutes to his office job in his Ford Excursion – that's just plain dumb). I think we will make it through this, difficult as it may be, and what comes out on the other end will be something completely different, and ultimately we will be better off because of it.
