It sounds for all the world like Symington is serious about running for Governor, which probably means that Galbraith is no longer serious (even though he too sounded for all the world like he was serious… so much seriousness). In fact, there seemed to be genuine enthusiasm in her voice at the prospect.
Symington has got to worry Douglas on one level – not because she’ll necessarily beat him outright (she wont with Pollina already campaigning hard), but because the number three scenario I referred to here would be in play:
A 3-Way Race With A Legislative Showdown. The plan here is to keep Douglas below 50%, forcing the final vote into the Legislature, where lawmakers give the nod to the number two vote getter. To make this work, the logic would have to be promoted ASAP and steadily, in order for it to gain exposure in the press and legitimacy among the public. The reasoning would be similar to the logic behind IRV, which the public has already been somewhat primed with. The winner should have a majority. If a majority rejects the Governor, the third place candidate agrees to essentially recuse themselves from the running and throw their support behind the second place winner – and by extension, their electoral support follows. The legislature then has a consistent rationale for picking the number two.
You better believe her caucus would vote for her if this thing goes to the legislature, as they are super-loyal. But how would she do as a candidate? There’s certainly an appeal to further breaking up the statewide boys club. Both the GOP and the Progs are even more top-heavy with testosterone than the Dems.
Stepping back from the specifics, it may sound ironic, but she shares a fundamental shortcoming as a candidate with, of all people, Anthony Pollina… and the first one of them who can move beyond it may be able to reap the rewards.
It’s easy to see it in Symington, but Pollina has the same problem – it just manifests completely differently. Consider the recent kerfuffle over his attempt to address the State Committee. Pollina, was of course, turned down (or at least put off for a few months). His response?
“I like to sit down at the table and talk about things,” Pollina said. “That’s how I work. So, I just don’t understand why they don’t want to meet with me and hear about the campaign.”
Eh. Just kinda grumpy/whiny, and pretty much what you’d expect, right?
And therein lies the problem.
Both Pollina and Symington are very, very set in their ways – even if those ways are counterproductive. With Pollina its more than just an ideological rigidity – that’s manageable, and can even be an asset if spun carefully. It’s more stylistic. Imagine if Pollina had instead said something like this:
Look, I’m not surprised by the decision. There is a lot of mistrust here going way back, and there’s no doubt that people on both sides – myself included – have done plenty to create this divide that exists between the Democrats and myself.
But I am truly committed to this race, and truly committed to reaching out and working with Democrats towards common goals, as a team. And I have no doubt that most Democrats feel similarly. So while I’d like to have this conversation with the State Committee as soon as possible, I respect that I am really asking for a sea change in the way we’ve all done politics, and I know the Democrats will need to meet me halfway in their own way and at their own time. I remain confident that, come June, the decision may change, and in the meantime, I’ll be working even harder to build that trust and reach out to Democrats, as well as Independents and Republicans who share our vision of Vermont’s future.
Now, wouldn’t that have made you double take and go “wow”?
But it wasn’t to be, and is not likely to be.
Now Symington’s insistence on doing things her way and her way only is legendary. Even some in her caucus will admit privately that they wish she would stretch out a bit and work outside her comfort zone to greater effect.
Why does it matter?
Because electoral politics is about who can control the landscape. If you’re light on your feet, can adapt, grow and move outside your comfort zone, you are adaptable, and in a good position to control the variables.
If you are a constant – unchanging and given to inertia, you don’t control much of anything.
But it becomes very easy for your opponent to control you.
Douglas has spent the last few years pressing Symington’s buttons as though he has a remote control. She is particularly vulnerable to casting political attacks as personal, as she makes way too much use of the pronoun “I”.
Pollina, too, is so predictable as to become a political archetype, if not an outright stereotype at times. This also has the effect of handing a maneuvering pol like Douglas a remote control over your actions.
Whichever one – Pollina or Symington – that finds the perspective, the discipline and the humility to play against form when the situation demands it, and do it deftly, will find themselves not only in the driver’s seat, but may well find the remote control for pressing Jim Douglas’s buttons.