Tonight Anthony Pollina goes to bed with a decision to make.
Mr. Pollina is the one person in Vermont who is entitled to choose whether Jim Douglas is assured another term in office beginning in January 2009. Depending on whether Mr. Pollina decides to run with the left, or against the left, will determine whether Jim Douglas wins reelection — either by plurality if not slim majority vote.
Anthony Pollina owns the choice. Depending on what Mr. Pollina does, Jim Douglas goes back into the Governor's office in 2009, or Jim Douglas faces a very good chance of being replaced by the most liberal and most progressive governor Vermont has ever had.
Even if, beginning in January 2009, the most liberal governor ever elected to serve Vermont is not Anthony Pollina, Mr. Pollina is still the one who is going to bed tonight deciding whether roughly half of us — i.e., the Vermont voters who want and who are likely to vote for a Democratic/Progressive nominee — will have the opportunity to make the choice to replace Jim Douglas.
In 2008, the Democratic primary is the functional equivalent of an instant run-off primary election. If Mr. Pollina joins his fellow travelers on the left side of the political spectrum in a September primary, the person emerging with the Democratic nomination will be the person who can otherwise expect to win the most “number one” and “number two” votes from that large and that potentially winning block of left/liberal/progressive voters who want to bring change to the governor’s office. The Democratic primary may not be the perfect vehicle and it’s certainly not Anthony Pollina’s favored vehicle to the governor’s office; but the fact is, it is the only path to a win in November.
For Anthony Pollina, or whoever wins the Democratic primary, there is a great opportunity too. The opportunity to run against an incumbent Republican Governor whose popularity is sagging and the opportunity to do so while holding the unified banner of the left.
I’m really not trying to bust on Mr. Pollina (seriously). Were I wearing the shoes of any of the potential contenders, or the incumbent for that matter, I would be doing (or at least considering) what is strategically in my best interest to clear the field of potential rivals to gain my best shot in November. Mr. Pollina apparently perceives his strategic short-term interest is best served by staying out of the Democratic primary. and running against an incumbent and an extremely progressive Democrat simultaneously in November. With the only chance to secure a victory for a progressive agenda in 2009 coming from a consolidated left (which can only come from a primary between those who want to represent the left), Mr. Pollina is also telegraphing a belief that his interests, and the best interests of a progressive agenda, are mutually exclusive. He’s wrong.
It is time to cut to the chase on how we can elect a liberal/progressive Governor. The decision Mr. Pollina has and the opportunity he can give to the progressives and liberals who want a serious change in direction in the governor’s office looks something like this . . . [after the jump]
Anthony Pollina holds the key to whether Jim Douglas is defeated in November.
The question is whether Pollina will use his key to unlock a door for the left to challenge Jim Douglas or whether he will instead use the key to lockout any chance of replacing the current GOP Governor.
Whether it is Anthony Pollina, John Campbell, Peter Galbraith or Doug Racine, Vermont can have the most progressive Governor of our lifetime (certainly in my almost three decades of voting) starting next January. Any of these four will be more liberal than any Governor we have seen in Montpelier.
Also, consider the climate right now. Jim Douglas is beatable. Jim Douglas is vulnerable.
Jim Douglas's reelect numbers are downright mediocre and subject to further downward adjustment. Jim Douglas's Republican Party, his Republican colleagues, and those Republican policies that they have forced on America, with Jim Douglas cheerleading the whole time for the most damaging agenda ever inflicted on the United States, have driven this country into a recession.
Jim Douglas is vulnerable because he has deliberately prevented the State of Vermont from protecting itself from the predictable and expected economic trauma of peak energy, poor infrastructure maintenance, global economic transformation and a healthcare crisis that brutally taxes our businesses while shackling the working class into downward mobility. These are problems that were on the radar when Jim Douglas took office, they are problems that his party – with his singing endorsement – has grossly exacerbated and they are problems he has ignored, made worse or shown he is unable or unwilling to fix.
Jim Douglas is vulnerable because he has ignored the social and economic costs of everything from the State's war on people who are addicted to substances to the never-ending destruction of Lake Champlain th. Shit, the guy loves to tell out-of-state businesses (i.e. job importers) how lousy it is to work in Vermont! The typical Republican approach is always that it is easier to save problems for the next generation if you can convince this generation that the problems are too hard, too expensive or just plain don't exists. Health care and Lake Champlain are just two obvious examples of that
Jim Douglas is beatable because the left/liberals/progressives in Vermont are ready with their votes, their sweat, their money and their voices to elect a Governor who will honestly acknowledge the damage global warming will bring to existing Vermont businesses and Vermont’s traditional economic generators. The left/liberal/progressive Vermont voter is ready to mobilize and to move aggressively toward opportunities (clean energy) that prepare Vermont for changes in the near and distant future while admitting the problems (health care) that cannot be ignored for another wasted two-year gubernatorial term.
And with this opportunity for the left, for liberals, for progressives & Progressives and Democrats, the formula to victory is not even that difficult to grasp. First, only a candidate who represents all of us can beat the incumbent Republican. The only way to have one candidate to represent us, is to have a primary. It really is that simple. And there is one primary that will test the candidates, clear the field and give us all a candidate to support in November. It is, was and will be the Democratic primary. Until we are lucky and wise enough to have instant runoff voting, for the Progressives/Democrats, this is the closest thing we have. Candidates are not entitled to run the election they want, they run the elections they face. If Mr. Pollina runs outside of the Democratic primary, he is only running to see how high he can jump in November. If he wins the Democratic primary, then he is in the running to unseat Jim Douglas. Isn't that what this is all about?
And bullshit to anyone who says that healthy competition will hurt Pollina/Campbell/Galbraith/Racine. Think fighting it out until November will make things easier? The fact is, having at least two of these candidates spending the summer proving who can stand against Jim Douglas most effectively in the general election while simultaneously raising awareness about the problems with the Douglas administration, through the publicity of a primary, is the best thing that can happen to any of us. Mr. Pollina is not going to win without the attention of a primary and then having the Democrats fall behind him if he wins, and the same goes for Messrs. Campbell/Galbraith/Racine. If he runs in the Democratic primary, Mr. Pollina deserves our respect and if he wins, I will convert that respect to aggressive support.
The table is set for 2008. A candidate who cannot win the Democratic primary in September can forget about winning the general election in November. It is the only contest that lets the most and potentially only viable candidate from the left clear the field for an unencumbered shot at the incumbent Republican. If he expects to take on Jim Douglas by waiting until November to beat him, while simultaneously taking on another left/liberal/progressive candidate, Mr. Pollina is not taking progressive and liberal voters as seriously as he takes himself. Don’t waste our time, our money or our effort.
Anthony Pollina goes to bed tonight with a lot to ponder. He has a tough decision to make. He can fight the hard primary battle first that will build the only winning coalition available to him; and if he wins the Democratic primary in September, he has the most legitimate – and only – shot at statewide election since he first ran statewide as a Democrat in 1984. Mr. Pollina is taking a tough call to bed with him. Unfortunately, for Vermont’s Progressives & Democrats, if Anthony Pollina is sleeping easy, well Jim Douglas can rest easy too.
Mr. Pollina, time to wake up.