( – promoted by Jack McCullough)
A post from a local Montpelier business leader at my now-largely-obsolete diary on the status of newly elected Statehouse Sergeant-at-Arms Francis Brooks’ House seat reminds me that I should probably post an update. The game is now afoot, and it’s worth another check-in. Please bear in mind, again, that what I should say on the matter is limited – particularly as regards my actual opinions – as my wife is one of the people who have made their interest known (although, since this is just a weblog, I can post whatever the heck I want, but still…).
First of all, Freyne has a brief tip of the hat to Brooks posted. Although popular in Montpelier, in recent years Francis seems to have rarely been given his due in greater Democratic circles. Hopefully there will be more tributes and acknowledgements forthcoming. Lord knows he’s earned ’em.
And a reminder: the Montpelier city committee will likely follow tradition and send a list of three names to the Governor for consideration, who will likely (but not necessarily) choose from that list. Given that, rumors abound that as many as 8 people may approach the committee for consideration. There are the three previously reported on here – Mayor Mary Hooper (who enjoys widespread support from the business community), Matt Levin and Cary Brown. Also having formally entered the mix is lawyer Jon Anderson. Unofficially, Washington County Assistant Judge Barney Bloom is also said to be interested. I couldn’t find information on the other three names, although one may be former Principal Charlie Phillips who after some initial interest has since backed off from consideration.
Where it would be silly to characterize this as a race, some jockeying behind the scenes has become… interesting… and even a bit tense. More after the fold.
Hooper and Anderson both want the seat badly, and are thusfar the only candidates to actively campaign for it – Hooper by email, and Anderson via snail mail and telephone. Hooper seems to have collected support from local business leaders, including local media, given her significant coverage in the Times Argus. The word has also been actively propogated that Hooper intends to run a primary contest in 2008 against anyone besides her who may be chosen, regardless of how well that person serves in the seat. There is some question as to whether or not this message is actually coming from Hooper herself, or whether it’s simply a narrative being promoted by Montpelier Rep. Warren Kitzmiller, who is supporting her aspirations. As it has just been repeated on this site by a local business leader (who himself had been rumored to be interested at one point)…
If anyone but Mayor Mary is appointed, they’d be a lame duck, as she’d run in two years and win.
…it’s clear that the notion is in full circulation and, at least, is not being refuted.
Given that the audience for such a threat is a tight circle of Democratic Party regulars – 20, to be exact (yes, I’m on the list) – it’s a dangerous idea to be circulating. First of all, the caucus can hardly only send one name to the Governor, as he would almost certainly reject such “marching orders” from Democrats outright. The suggestion that others interested could end up on a de facto enemies list may not go over well with Hooper’s fellow Democrats. Neither will the suggestion that she would foist a primary onto the party regardless of whether or not the designee actually serves the town well in their role as Representative.
But the fact is that Hooper’s threat could well be more targeted in intent, if not in application. Jon Anderson has a reputation in the statehouse as being… well, as not really being a Democrat, despite the fact that he once served as City Chair. To a person, everyone I’ve discussed the race with who only knows him from the Statehouse has greeted me with the same response: “I thought he was a Republican.”
This is because Anderson tends to represent development interests (such as Skip Vallee’s company) and has a reputation for being decidely anti-regulation and not generally receptive to progressive zoning or environmental positions. What this likely means for Hooper (and the others) is that – despite the narrative of inevitability that Hooper’s supporters have attempted to perpetuate regarding her appointment – the truth is, if Anderson is on the list forwarded by the city, the seat is likely his, given his strong ties with those connected to the Governor. Heck, even if he’s not on the list, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Governor throw out the list and appoint Anderson anyway.
Hooper’s threat may be specifically targetted at Anderson, as she has kicked his butt in citywide elections already and he therefore has to be taking that threat seriously. An Anderson appointment would also be likely to draw a Progressive Party candidate into the mix as well, although Progs generally haven’t fared well when they’ve run under the official Party banner in Montpelier.
In any event, Anderson is undaunted, and has been lobbying to guarantee that the meeting will be scheduled before or after a planned absence from the city.
Anderson may not be the only one threatened with a primary challenge though, as a couple activists from the liberal wing of the party who have not been as pleased with the Mayor’s performance as Kitzmiller, have suggested that a Hooper appointment would almost certainly draw a challenge from the left. That may be a moot point if another rumor (this one I’ve only heard from one source, so take it with some serious grains of salt…) – that the Governor is displeased with Hooper and likely wouldn’t appoint her – is true.
All told, this hubbub hardly rises to the level of intrigue, and it all seems to be happening around the lesser known municipal players Levin, Bloom and Brown who haven’t been out there campaigning for the position beyond casual conversation. But it does suggest that the yet-to-be-scheduled city committee meeting, which many have suggested would be a foregone conclusion, may be wide open – even if the Governor’s choice may be less so.
Bring the popcorn.
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