It’s back. With 33 sponsors in the House and 10 in the Senate, civil rights activists are finally moving to finish the work that began with the placement of the term “civil union” into the international lexicon.
Putting aside for a moment the idea that in a truly just society, any so-called “debate” around granting full rights of citizenship to gays and lesbians shouldn’t consist of any more hand-wringing than a quick fifteen minute “Wha..? Gays can’t marry?! Oops! Geez…. what were we thinking?! Sorry about that…. here, let’s take a second and fix that right up…(pass, pass, conference, pass, sign),” there’s little doubt that the issue – if it gets any traction at all – is electoral dynamite in Vermont.
For proponents, now is clearly the best time to move forward. There are strong, established majorities in the House and Senate and nobody’s willing to bet the farm on a Douglas electoral defeat anytime soon. Clearly, if not now, when?
And among those stepping up to do the right thing is a surprise name; that of Senate Majority Leader John Campbell of Windsor, largely considered among the most conservative of the caucus, and a fairly feisty conservative as well. From the Times Argus:
As a Democrat who lives in Quechee, a portion of the state more conservative than some, he heard firsthand the animosity stirred up by that law, which provides same-sex couples many of the same legal protections as marriage.
“There was such uproar,” Campbell, the majority leader in the Senate, said Wednesday. “No one was in the middle.”But he also heard from gay and lesbian couples about what a difference the law made to them, Campbell said. While he understood the arguments against the bill, he rejects the idea that civil unions damaged the institution of marriage or morals in Vermont.
“It’s not about morality. It’s about compassion, understanding and humanity,” Campbell said.
Put aside for a moment the odd choice of words there – morality is about compassion, understanding and humanity, yes?
Still, Campbell may not simply be doing the right thing. As another Democrat frequently rumored to hold loftier political ambitions, he may be showing more political savvy than his former rival for Senate leadership.
Consider what we can gleam from the post-civil union election battle of 2000. The results of what was probably the least pleasant election cycle in anyone’s memory obviously showed a highly polarized, visceral split between those that supported equality and those who rejected it outright for gays and lesbians. It also showed an equally pronounced split among many House districts. More often than not, a district was clearly “pro” or “anti,” with more being “anti,” leading to the dramatic power shift that booted Dems from legislative control.
But broken out of those districts, the statewide numbers suggested a “pro” majority – just one that was too clumpy to keep the legislature out of GOP hands. Governor Dean became the very embodiment of the issue on the campaign trail, yet he still won re-election. Lt. Governor Racine as well.
It might well be that the savvy choice for a politico with statewide ambitions would be to… well, to do the right thing, here – especially if you’re a politico who could stand to improve his overly-conservative image among more liberal primary voters, as Campbell would be advised to do. It also would give him bragging rights on proudly doing the right thing in the face of public scorn, when in fact the greater public is probably with him.
Throw into the mix that this is seven years later, and as such the intensive polarity of this debate is bound to be less pronounced than the last one, if for no other reason than the two main arguments of the anti-civil union crowd – that Vermont society would collapse, and that “civil unions” are actually gay marriage being snuck in and foisted on Vermonters – are dead and buried. Obviously, society hasn’t collapsed, and if civil unions really are same sex marriage, then what possible difference would actual same sex marriage make.
Still, without question, the issue has the unique potential to create a mirrored Montpelier next session – a Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor facing off against at least one Republican house of Congress.
Shumlin, on the other hand, by saying that he is “…not planning on wasting a lot of energy on efforts that will not become law… If the governor indicated he would sign the bill, I would take a more serious look at it” is putting himself in seriously dangerous waters, precisely because that statement in and of itself is absurd in its (seeming) arbitrariness. Does Shumlin really mean to casually provide Douglas with such an all encompassing rhetorical veto? Of course not. There will be climate change bills that will emerge from this Senate, despite Douglas inevitably indicating his unwillingness to sign them. In fact there may well be some deliberately intended to draw such a veto in order to draw a bright line of distinction between Douglas and his next Democratic opponent.
Shumlin also needs to be careful because this issue isn’t going to get swept under the rug in the same way impeachment was last session. It’s a hot-button, simple-to-discuss issue with strong, sustained interest from the press and among many across the broad Democratic base. He may bottle it up in the Senate, but in the House there will be a strong push from proponents that will take on a personal enough quality among Legislative coworkers that it may well overcome Speaker Symington’s near-absolute reticence to take on any overly controversial, potentially majority-threatening issues. If that happens, Shumlin could end up looking like a road block to equality, feebly trying to point the finger of blame at the Governor – when if there’s any legislative body that could likely hold a veto-proof majority, it’s the Senate rather than the House.