Daily Archives: November 8, 2006

Whew

Ok, there is just too much to talk about right now.  Unfortunately Donny Osman didn’t get the Washington County, VT senate seat, but nonetheless we ran a great campaign and things went great nationally. In addition to waking up and hearing we won the U.S Senate as well, now Rumsfeld just resigned.  I just need a day to let it all digest. More tomorrow. And if you want to feel really good, if you can stomach it pop over to the wingnuts at Free Republic and watch the meltdown. Gloat till you crap your pants. You deserve it.

Oh, and Mr. Bush?

You Heard It Here First

I predict that Dick Cheney will resign soon and Bush will appoint a Rove type as VP, effectively appointing his successor by making that person the automatic front runner for the Repub presidential nomination, and head off McCain.  My bet at this time is Frist.  Earlier, I would have said DeLay, but not anymore.

Who’s a Winner, Who’s a Loser, and Who is on the Seat of Heat

Losers:

  • Donald Rumsfeld: The ax has fallen. The press is reporting that Rumsfeld is “Stepping down.”
  • Randy Brock: This may sound oxymoronic – sure he won his election (apparently), but by the narrowest of margins against a candidate who didn’t seem to run a campaign at all. I knew people who voted for Progressive Martha Abbott (who ran quite a competent campaign), who weren’t inclined to vote for a Prog, but felt downright insulted by Salmon seemingly believing all he had to do was be named “Tom Salmon Jr.” Brock’s unexpected vulnerability has placed a huge bullseye on him for 2008.
  • Vermont Social Conservatives: The social conservative wing of the GOP lost its latest star in Sen. Wendy Wilton of Rutland County.
  • State GOP Chair Jim Barnett: Barnett abandoned the House and Senate GOP caucuses to focus on the top of the ticket, and it shows – now that there is a combined, non-Republican presence enough to overturn a Douglas veto in each half of congress… and still, he presided over the painful loss of the US House race. Expect many in the state GOP to begin calling for new leadership, despite Barnett’s gubernatorial backing.
  • Bush: Can you say “oversight?”

Winners:

  • The Constitution: … or what’s left of it.
  • Carolyn Dwyer: The Vermont Dem usual suspect faced her first serious test in running the Welch campaign. Sure, she managed the last Leahy campaign, but that was simply a coronation, rather than a race. Granted, Dwyer got a lot of help from the Rainville operation which ran a staggeringly bad campaign, but she ran a tight, disciplined ship that focused on its goal like a laser beam.
  • Senator Leahy: It was Leahy who was largely responsible for bringing Bernie into the Dem Senatorial tent, and Leahy camp operative Dwyer who ran the successful Welch campaign. The Leahy operation only enhanced its influence over the VDP last night.
  • Sen. Sara Kittell (D-Franklin): Senator Collins is a winner here too, but Kittell the perennial target in socially conservative, swing county Franklin has survived her strongest, most well-funded challenge to date, and may finally begin to move into local institution status, taking some of the pressure off.
  • Bill Lofy: The former Wellstone staffer, State House Communications pro and recent Democratic Coordinated Campaign chief has cemented his superstar status in Vermont. VDP Executive Director Jon Copans has also seen his star rise, given that the vitories last night in the state were significant, and the losses hardly unexpected.
  • The 2008 Vermont Democratic Coordinated Campaign: A new US Representative with a ‘D’ by his name means more resources from the national infrastructure than in the past. Expect the structural improvements the Dems were able to fund this year (such as an enviable early vote operation, despite the news reports you may have heard to the contrary) to continue and even improve next time.
  • Joe Lieberman: I’m sure Joe is already making his demands known to leadership…

On the Seat of Heat:

  • Governor Douglas: Facing a State House that now has the power to overturn a gubernatorial veto (the breakdown is 93 Dems, 49 Republicans, 6 Progressives and 2 Independents), the Governor is going to have to change the way he does business with the Dems.
  • Speaker Gaye Symington and Senate President Pro Tem ???: WIth that same enhanced majority, Democratic activists are going to expect many of the progressive priorities that fell by the wayside to be picked up again – and that inevitably includes health care.

Next Time…and a Poll

There is much, much to discuss after last night. No doubt everyone is nursing their psychic hangovers while still paying rapt attention to the wafer-thin margins that would seem to put the US Senate out of the “stay the course” campers’ hands.

In Vermont, of course, the evening was bittersweet, with Parker and Dunne coming up short – and in the latest tallies, Brock leading the Auditors race by about 1700 votes, which likely means it’s a done deal.

But let’s get right to a ridiculously early sense-o-the-crazy-blogreaders poll, just for kicks, eh? Regular readers have read what I think it would take to beat Douglas strategically, but who would you prefer (at this point) to see carry the Dem torch for governor next election? I’m tossing up a poll to the left that will stay up all week, and while it is admittedly a silly thing to do, it also packages a very serious message – if you’re interested in the job, start laying the groundwork now

Ho-Lee Crap: Nationally, Dems May Be Taking It All…!!

As it stands right now, not only have the Dems more than nearly doubled the number of House pickups to reclaim leadership (and the pickups – Iowa! Indiana! Kentucky! Dean’s 50-state strategy will be rightfully credited with supplying the local infrastructure to take advantage of the national wave…!), but thanks to the razor-thinnest of victory margins (that will be recounted) in both Missouri and Virginia (macaca-no-more!), a victory in Montana for Jon Tester will change the power in the Senate as well (and at the moment, although it’s still early, Tester has a reasonably solid held onto, what turned out to be the slimmest of leads).

Wow. This merits yet another, slightly extended Spongebob victory moment. Watch in stunned amazement, as Squidward’s Republican cousin Squilliam collapses in disbelief at the awesome sounds of celebration…

Turnout

I don’t know what the results are going to show in other parts of the state, but turnout in Montpelier was fantastic. We have 6200 people on our checklist, but 800 of them are due to be dropped as inactive for two years. We had 4200 votes case, so if you exclude the people who aren’t really active voters that gives us a turnout of over 75%

This is good overall, and a good reflection on our GOTV effort. Great work, Andrea Stander and the whole coordinated campaign!

Lite Gov

Matt Dunne is conceding right now. He won a great campaign, and he gave us all the idea that he just might pull it off in the last couple of weeks, but it’s not happening this time. He’s definitely talking about running again, and I’ll be interested in seeing if other candidates take up his idea of service politics. I’m not that sure that it’s an effective strategy; on the other hand, it can be so hard to attract publicity, and this might be a good way to do it.

Big news out west

On CNN they’re saying that the South Dakota anti-abortion referendum (actually, I’m not sure if it’s a referendum or an initiative) is going down to defeat. This is great news.

Speaker Pelosi

Wolf Blitzer is saying right now that we have picked up the fifteen seats we need, so that gives us control of the House, and Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, John Conyers chair of Judiciary.

Denny Hastert isn’t quite conceding right now, but he doesn’t sound optimistic.