[This is my second column for the Vermont Journal that appeared last week. I’m still getting the hang of this print medium thing, frankly, and this one kinda blew. The one coming out this Wednesday is a bit better… I’m working on it.]
Two years ago, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Peter Clavelle was taken to task by the media for attempting to draw connections between Governor Jim Douglas and the already widely unpopular (in Vermont, anyway) administration of President Bush. Burlington’s True Majority organization crystallized the argument with the “Jim=George” lawn signs that popped up here and there across central Vermont.
Many considered this line of attack to be part of the reason for Clavelle’s electoral pummeling, but when you hear current Democratic candidate Scudder Parker making the same connections, you aren’t hearing the same dismissive response from Vermont’s fourth estate.
To an extent, it’s because many in the state approach elections this year as one big circus show with several rings. There’s Bernie vs. Tarrant over in that corner, Dubie vs. Dunne across the way, and our local state House and Senate candidates scattered about – but all still under one big top. It was inevitable, therefore, that with the high profile race for US Representative, the Bush factor would be brought into the general arena in a way that it wasn’t two years ago.
But it’s more than that. If it weren’t, Parker’s criticisms of Douglas’s Bush connections (he was Bush’s Vermont re-election campaign chairman in 2004) wouldn’t be resonating at all.
The fact is that national politics are on everyone’s mind in a way that they weren’t two years ago. With Iraq falling into Civil War, terrorism a greater threat than it was on 9/11, and corruption and moral hypocrisy reaching never before seen levels in Washington, it’s hard not to be thinking about the state of our union.
Iraq in particular has become an electoral catalyst. With 64% of Americans firmly against it now (and no doubt even more dramatic numbers in Vermont), the war is effecting people’s local electoral decision making in two ways.
First, it is causing eyebrows to rise at any direct connection to Bush and the Washington Republicans. Martha Rainville’s campaign has been one steady defensive attempt to create distance from this crowd, but her financial and institutional connections run too deep for her to convincingly cast herself as an independent operator.
It’s also no coincidence that the battle for Governor only caught fire when Douglas foolishly used his connections to the Washington GOP in a very public way to kill the Wilderness bill, and in doing so cast himself in opposition to Senator Leahy, Senator Jeffords, and Congressman Sanders – the virtual Holy Trinity of national anti-Bush sentiment.
Most significantly, it is feeding the anger and cynicism of self-identified independent voters as they look at the political parties as a group from the outside. Independents have abandoned Democrats in the past because of a judgment that they don’t stand for anything. While hard-pressed to shake that impression, shifting poll numbers suggest that independents are now forming a collective impression of those who willingly self-identify as candidates of this President’s party as well; that they stand for something both dangerous and foolish.
This could put anyone with an R alongside their name at any level at risk, as a vote for a Republican becomes seen as a vote to institutionally enable those whose disastrous policies have put our nation at greater risk.
This election and its unique climate will test the axiom that Vermonters vote the candidate rather than the party, like never before. Whether it makes sense or not, many voters cast their ballot based on what’s on their mind and what’s in their gut. The Governor knows this well, which is why he has tried to loudly shift the conversation towards taxes in these waning weeks.
Tip O’Neill is famously quoted as saying “all politics is local.” One has to wonder, looking at the world and the issues on everyone’s mind, if the reciprocal hasn’t become the case this year – that all local politics have become national.