Update: Okay, I’ve asked around and fielded a phone call from a perturbed insider, and I’ll admit I may be underestimating Rainville’s name recognition, and yes I know its hard to be out defining yourself when youre a legislator in session…but my thesis stands: we need to be very concerned about this race, and Vermont lefties cannot afford to take it for granted. Here’s Baruth’s piece from a few weeks back to help me make my point.
The results of Senator Bill Doyle’s (R-Washington) famed “Doyle Poll” — a non-scientific, broadly distributed survey handed out at Town Meetings across the state — are in, and the news is not good for Senate President Pro Tem and US Congress hopeful Peter Welch (D-Windsor). Senator Welch will undoubtedly take some comfort in the fact that the poll is completely unscientific. But if he takes anything more than rhetorical solace, he isn’t doing himself or his supporters any favors.
The poll shows the 6,315 respondents (from 126 cities or towns) choosing Republican candidate Martha Rainville over Welch 40% to 39% (a Rainville-advantaged dead-heat, but Welch should be decidedly out in front at this point given his high profile), with 21% undecided. What makes this poll impossible to dismiss, despite its complete lack of any verifiable or statistically sound methodology is two things. One: it skews towards the more rural areas (where statewide Dems need to watch their electoral backsides), and two: other results of the poll are, well, exactly what you’d expect to see, suggesting it may not be so far off. In the US Senate race for example, Bernie towered over Tarrant 62%-26% with a mere 12% undecided.
The problem many Dems are either in denial about, or simply don’t want to admit is that Welch is just not an appealing candidate. He comes off as central casting’s out-of-touch liberal, which is bad enough, but ironically, he’s also fallen out-of-touch with much of his natural liberal base (although they are thankfully showing signs of coming back around of late). He’s already lost two statewide races, and yet his name recognition is still as much from his “need a lawyer…?” commercials as from his political credentials. Quite frankly, Welch could be better off as a blank slate than being perceived as the “ambulance chaser” candidate.
The long and the short of the matter is that Welch has to be out there redefining himself for the electorate NOW before Rainville gets her act together and starts doing it for him. And all the Obama fundraisers in the world aren’t going to help him with that. Neither will depending on travelling with Bernie. Just ask Anthony Pollina, Cheryl Rivers and Peter Clavelle. As Anthony said to me after the last election, “there are no coattails in Vermont.” The sooner Senator Welch learns that, the sooner he can get out there and start making his own coat.
With the distant potential for the Dems to retake the US House growing, the last thing any of us want to see is Vermont to be the site of the R’s surprise pick-up in November — especially if the national Dems were to come up just one seat short (shudder).