(Promoted from the diaries, with a little format-editing. Hope thats okay… – promoted by odum)
A great question worthy of discussion here and elsehwere. This question posed by the Rutland Herald and column follow below.
Are Democrats in trouble in Vermont politics?
March 9, 2006
By Darren M. Allen Vermont Press Bureau
MONTPELIER — She had the endorsements of the state’s political elite, outspent her opponents by nearly 8 to 1 and was widely expected to win an election in which Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean cast his first in-person vote in years.
So why did Hinda Miller an entrepreneur who founded JogBra, a popular state senator and capable grassroots campaigner lose her race for mayor of Vermont’s largest city to a Progressive who got in the race months later and quipped at one time that he was running for Burlington’s top job because someone from his party had to?
And, more importantly, what does Miller’s loss ; an eight-point shellacking in which she failed to carry even one of the city’s seven wards — mean for Democrats as they head into elections all over Vermont?
Political observers, candidates and party operatives of all three parties were scratching their heads Wednesday to explain how Robert Kiss, a Progressive state representative who only reluctantly carried his party’s banner in the mayoral race, pumped out a decisive victory.
Democrats, of course, suggested that, in the end, some nasty press coverage about Miller soured many voters at the same time that Kiss was the beneficiary of an outstanding army of grass roots volunteers who canvassed the city ward-by-ward and door-by-door.
“The Progressive Party ran an excellent campaign, and they canvassed the city very effectively and very thoroughly,” said Ian Carleton, the chairman of the Vermont Democratic Party and a Burlington city councilor. “You don’t get to be the party in power in the city of Burlington without having a strong party operation in place.”
But that is exactly what most political observers say about the state’s Democrats and what gives them the ability, year-in and year-out, to keep their grasp on legislative seats.
In Burlington, however, it is important to remember that it is the Progressives who have held the mayor’s seat for the past quarter century. Since Rep. Bernard Sanders, I-Vt., defeated six-term incumbent Gordon Paquette in 1981, the Progressives have ruled the roost, with the exception of Peter Brownell’s two-year interruption of Peter Clavelle’s reign between 1993 and 1995.
Clavelle, who endorsed Miller, was a Progressive until he became a Democrat in his unsuccessful bid to oust Republican Gov. James Douglas. He was surprised by Miller’s defeat.
“It was a high road campaign, and Bob Kiss worked hard,” Clavelle said. “It was an issue-oriented effort that worked. Burlington voters looked at the Progressives and liked what they saw.”
Republicans put up a respectable showing in Tuesday’s race. Veteran city council member Kevin Curley placed third in the first round of balloting in the city’s debut of instant runoff voting, garnering 26 percent of the vote. It was about 5 points behind Miller, and 13 points behind Kiss. In the second round, Curley’s votes were redistributed between Miller and Kiss. The final tally gave Kiss 54 percent of the vote to Miller’s 46.
“Frankly, I think the results may point to the increasing irrelevance of the Democratic Party in Burlington and, frankly, in other parts of the state,” said James Barnett, the chairman of the Vermont Republican Party.
“Obviously, the Democrats are not irrelevant,” he said. “But, as they become increasingly leftist, it drives liberal voters to the Progressives, who are the true believers in the cause.”
In one sense, another Progressive at the top of City Hall in Burlington is a non-story. In another, of course, it is a big deal, particularly when the Democratic candidate had the backing of the state’s most influential Democratic machine: that of Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who said Miller was “a leader in her community … a great state senator” with “a certain flair that separates her from your average politician.”
She also had the solid endorsement of Dean, who said earlier this winter that he was excited to participate in a Town Meeting Day election in person for the first time in years so he could try out the city’s experiment with instant runoff voting.
Indeed, he sent out a press release announcing when he was going to cast his Ward 5 vote early in the morning so that news photographers could capture the event.
In the end, Miller lost the ward to Kiss by 72 votes. It was a pattern repeated in the city’s other six wards. In her own ward, she lost to Kiss by 22 votes. In fact, Curley won two wards in the city’s new North End, and Miller ended up without a single ward victory.
One longtime political observer and participant in many behind the scenes electoral activities said it came down to Kiss’ ability to knock on doors, run an efficient campaign and rely on his association with the Progressives.
“The Democrats haven’t been in power in the city since 1980, and the Progs know how to do this,” said the observer, who asked not to be identified because of his employer. “But is there a statewide implication? I don’t think so. It really serves to keep the Progressive blood supply flowing. But, make no mistake: this was a decisive victory.”
Decisive, observers say, because the Progressives took a page out of the Democratic Party’s playbook. Build a ground-level base of support, knock on doors, call the right potential voters and do it all over again until election day. Except that it didn’t work for the Democrats in the state’s largest city.
Barnett, however, was reluctant to draw any big statewide inference from the mayor’s race, but he did suggest it wasn’t meaningless, either.
“I think it is a big defeat for Howard Dean,” Barnett said. “The Democratic candidate who had the support of the entire Democratic establishment lost in the liberal hometown of the chairman of the national Democratic Party.”
One candidate for whom the ability of the national Democratic Party to get its preferred candidates elected is Sanders. He raised the ire of many of his Burlington Progressive soul mates when he sought their support for his current run at the U.S. Senate. He raised even more by endorsing Peter Welch, the Democratic president pro tem of the Vermont Senate, in his run for Sanders’ House seat.
He purposely stayed out of the mayor’s race this time.
“I am running for U.S. Senate, and virtually all of my political energy is going to go into that race,” he said in a brief telephone interview from his Washington offices. “I want to make sure that a Republican does not get my seat.”
He took note that Kiss won an election with far less name recognition and far less money. His likely opponent in the U.S. Senate race is multimillionaire businessman Richard Tarrant.
“Vermont is a small state and Burlington is a small city, and ultimately people know who you are and where you are coming from,” he said. “There are lot more important things out there than money. People know Bob Kiss, and he was able to get around the city. More than any of the other candidates, he supported the direction Burlington has moved toward in the last 25 years.”
Contact Darren Allen at darren.allen@rutlandherald.com
