The H.520 Plan

by: odum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 07:44:36 AM EDT

Let's look ahead to just how the H.520 fight could play out in the coming weeks. As I've said, the big mistake of the announcement was twofold; one, that it let many of the supporters feel left out in the cold scratching their heads (and greenvtster is mistaken, only in that leadership had up to that moment, very much been in coordination with the base on this), and two; that the timing was premature and gave the appearence of capitulation, and therefore - weakness (and you never want to show weakness at a time like this).

Still, it was a strategic move, and if you still doubt that - consider how this could now play out.

Leadership holds the veto vote and comes up short. They then do what they've suggested; vote to suspend the rules and modify the bill, putting off the funding schema until January. This bill - a new bill - passes with a simple majority.

Then we go through it again - the new bill goes back to the Governor's desk where he can sign it, veto it, or allow it to become law without his signature. WIthout the funding scheme, the pressure will be a lot greater than it was before -especially since his "unfunded mandate" and "bureaucracy" excuses are so thin, they're falling completely flat.

But let's say the Governor vetoes it again. The Dem leadership then has the option - even the responsibility - of calling another override session. When? Check your calendar, folks, we're talking September again, when we can have all hands on deck - and with a bill that, in theory, many of the opponents have indicated they'll support. With all its policy provisions intact. And the whole thing keeps the issue alive and active in the public debate leading up closer to the election season.

The problem is we've become conditioned to see every move of the leadership as a failure (and the anti-Dem crowd gleefully exploits that), and in this case - at least in the big picture - it's just too early to tell.