Here are two different outlooks on Vermont’s economic state from two groups that are normally of the same tribe. In the Campaign for Vermont’s June Email newsletter (find full copy after the jump) Bruce Lisman is going full heavy on the gloom.
SNAPSHOT VERMONT: “…an uneasy feeling hangs in the air”.
Lisman continues
“the sense of abundant opportunities has gone away and optimism is waning. Too many Vermonters are just getting by and private sector employers, who create jobs that fuel state government with taxes, are cautious.
This contrasts with the qualified, but noticeably more upbeat assessment found in the Vermont Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey. After laying out some routine qualifiers the Roundtable chairman says
“The Roundtable’s survey results indicate an increasing degree of optimism in the economy when compared against the previous quarter,”
Key findings from the second quarter of 2012 over the first quarter of 2012 include:
An expected seven percent increase in stable company sales;
An expected six percent increase in stable capital spending; and finally;
An expected five percent increase in stable employment levels.
Vermont Business CEO’s see stable sales, an increase in capital spending and five percent increase in stable employment levels yet Lisman and the Campaign for Vermont are full of foreboding; their sense optimism is waning and an uneasy feeling hangs in the air they say.
What’s up with Bruce, what could the problem be?
Well since he was an investment banker maybe a little wild speculation is appropriate.
I was told about neuroscientist John Coates’ study of testosterone and other hormone levels of trading floor bankers The Hour Between Dog and Wolf. Haven’t read the book but his findings apparently suggest that spikes in hormone levels affect behavior in ways that make the financial boom and bust crisis cycle almost unavoidable. Post crisis says Coates the financial industry becomes filled with anxiety and a sense of imminent danger, a "clinical population" of the psychologically battered.
Maybe post Wall Street crash Bruce Lisman needs to tune-up his hormone level. Aw, better keep it simple and assume Lisman’s Campaign just wants to sound like a little Mitt Romney or Randy Brock.
June 19 2012
JOIN US! SNAPSHOT VERMONT: Despite the fact that most Vermonters are working, an uneasy feeling hangs in the air that hard work equates to barely keeping ones head above water. The sense of abundant opportunities has gone away and optimism is waning. Too many Vermonters are just getting by and private sector employers, who create jobs that fuel state government with taxes, are cautious. Vermont's population and their real personal income per capita have been flat lined, with both growing at less than .03 of one percent annually over the past decade. For Vermont businesses, this means that the number of customers and the dollars they can spend is essentially stagnant, or declining.(http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/50000lk.html) Despite the current state of our economy, since the start of the recession in 2008, and exclusive of federal funds, the state budget has grown by $390 million or 13.7%. This doesn't even take into consideration embarking on a new health care scheme with costs that are still unknown, and stands in stark contrast to the income stagnation over this same period experienced by Vermonters.
(http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/appropriations/fy_2012_-_FY12_Total_Appropriations_Comparison.pdf)(http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/appropriations/fy_2013/FY09 – FY13_Appropriations_History _final.pdf (page 31)) WE CAN DO BETTER YOU CAN HELP GET INVOLVED WITH CFV Contact us at:info@campaignforvermont.org Campaign for Vermont is putting progress before partisanship and uniting Vermonters.
so much to say, so little time
“Vermont’s population and their real personal income per capita have been flat lined, with both growing at less than .03 of one percent annually over the past decade. For Vermont businesses, this means that the number of customers and the dollars they can spend is essentially stagnant, or declining.”
First, Mr. Lisman must have forgotten that goods & services can be sold outside Vermont.
Also, you might want to send him the remarkable graphic on income distribution posted a few days ago here at GMD. I wonder if he will support changes to the tax code that would put more money in the pockets of the 99%? Shouldn’t that be good for business?
“Too many Vermonters are just getting by…”
Right. We’ve been saying that for decades (see the Job Gap Study). Does Mr. Lisman support a livable wage? Heck, does he even support the minimum wage?
My biggest concern about Mr. Lisman’s continuing effort to depress everyone in sight is his failure to put any of his facts in context. For example, while no one suggests that average families are getting ahead, it’s noteworthy that Vermont’s median household income is 20th in the country and higher than the U.S. average.
While our poverty rate is not that much lower than it was 30 years ago, it is 12th lowest in the country and lower than the U.S. rate.
In the last ten years (after two recessions), Vermont’s rate of job growth is 32nd best. Not great but note that it was positive while 16 states were negative. [BTW – Vermont’s job growth has been much better than MA & ME. Imagine how they must feel being worse than Mr. Lisman’s sad Vermont.]
And the horror expressed about state funding increasing by 13.7% since 2008 is absurd. Not only does that ignore the costs of inflation, but it also ignores the increased demand for public services due to the recession.
I could go on. The point is that it is fundamentally dishonest to present this type of information in a vacuum. States must be seen in a larger context. Shame on Mr. Lisman for trying to mislead Vermonters.