(Was meaning to write a diary something like this myself, but been too caught up in everything else. Thank heavens we’re an open forum! – promoted by odum)

For the first weekend in a long time, I find myself with a Sunday evening and no papers to write, and so I hoped I could contribute something to the conversation around Vermont House seats that could change hands this Tuesday.  Last year, I came out with something I called the Vermont District Index, compiling election results from past several years to rank how Democratic or Republican a house district is compared to the state as a whole, based off the idea of the Cook PVI.

After reading Shay Totten’s piece on the house districts he and Eric Davis have their eye on, I thought I’d go through my database and break down those races a little bit further.  Needless to say, if the nitty-gritty of Vermont House races isn’t your interest, this piece probably isn’t for you, but there are a lot of exciting races happening down the ballot this year, and I’ve taken some time out to dive deeper into a few of them.

Join me in looking at Chittenden 3-4, Rutland-Windsor-1, Franklin-3, Caledonia-3, Orleans-1, Windham-1, Addison-5, Washington 3-1, Windsor-Orange-1, and Washington-1

Chittenden 3-4 (D+47)

Burlington

Represented by: Kesha Ram (D) & David Zuckerman (P-retiring)

This race is the one my model becomes useless for, because it doesn’t have any way of differentiating between Democratic and Progressive candidates.  After weighing a potential run for Lt. Governor and Chittenden State Senate, Zuckerman announced that he would not be running for any office this year.  Ram (full disclosure: I worked on her 2008 campaign) is finishing out her first term in the Statehouse after winning the seat in what was arguably the most heated campaign in the state last time around.

Former representative Chris Pearson, who came in 3rd in the 2008 race, is back again.  Diane Gottlieb, a longtime Progressive activist, is also on the ballot, though she appears to be serving as more of a sponge for Pearson, with her candidacy not even being mentioned on the Progressive website.  Ram’s running mate, Peg Single Boyle, had to win a tough primary to become the second Democratic nominee, and has waged a strong campaign alongside Ram.  Ultimately, it’s going to come down to whether or not Pearson has made significant inroads on his own – during his tenure in the House, he never had to win a contested election after being appointed to fill Bob Kiss’ seat.  

Rutland-Windsor 1 (R+14)

Chittenden, Mendon, Killington, Bridgewater

Represented by: Megan Smith (D)

Shay cited Smith has a vulnerable Democrat because of her votes on same-sex marriage and the veto override.  Rutland-Windsor-1 is ranked as the 41st most Republican seat in the House, and the 10th most Republican seat currently held by a Democrat.  In Smith’s 2008 campaign, she beat her opponent in all but one of the district’s four evenly-sized towns, racking up a 17 point edge in her hometown of Killington and trailing by 4 points in the most conservative part of the district, Chittenden.

Smith is saddled with a significant challenge in Jim Eckhardt, a small business owner and chair of the National Federation of Independent Business Leadership Council.  The two candidates have raised similar sums of money, Smith reporting $5535 and Eckhardt $5019, though Eckhardt retained a slight cash-on-hand advantage at the October 15th filing deadline.

This seat looks like an incredibly difficult Dem hold – Bridgewater is the only Democratic center to try and boost turnout in and all four towns have voted Republican by significant margins in the past two gubernatorial races.  While all four of the towns have voted slightly more Democratic over the past two cycles, Smith may be one of the few representatives who “pays a price” for giving us two big votes this past session.

Franklin 3 (R+4)

St. Albans City

Represented by Kathleen Keenan (D) & Jeff Young (D)

While Keenan, who’s been serving since ’89, is certainly safe, freshman representative Young slipped into the house by a four-point margin in 2008 and was unable to stay out of the headlines last session.  Young initially voted against same-sex marriage, but then voted to override Douglas’ veto on the grounds that it would help him become a more effective legislator in the future.

That legislative future is now in doubt. Young hasn’t filed a single financial disclosure report this cycle, while a Republican challenger Dustin Degree, had raised $2755 at last notice.  This seat sits right in the middle on the spectrum of house seats, and while reliably a vote for Douglas, has been safely Democratic at the national level for the past decade.  It’d be a shame to lose a seat that should be safely Democratic, so I have to hope that what Young has lacked in fundraising, he’s made up for in work on the ground.

Caledonia 3 (R+21)

St. Johnsbury

Represented by Gary Reis (R) & Bob South (D)

Where as Franklin-3 is a seat we shouldn’t be losing, Caledonia-3 is one that we should just be thankful to hold in the first place.  South’s seat is the 3rd most Republican that Democrats currently hold, and the 21st most Republican in the entire House.  St. Johnsbury elected two new representatives in 2008, and all four candidates came within five percent of each other.  

It’s clear that South is aware of the difficult of his position, and has brought in a decent fundraising haul to keep himself afloat, raising $2790 by the Sept. 15th deadline, far outpacing Reis ($1193) and the two other challengers who don’t appear to have raised serious funds.  

But South has to contend with his 2009 vote to override the Governor’s veto on same-sex marriage, a vote that likely riled constituents.  South’s district was targeted by the Vermont Republican Party’s poling during the marriage debate, where they found only 31% of the district in favor of passing the law.  South faces an uphill ideological battle, but if he goes down on Tuesday it won’t be for a lack of trying.

Orleans 1 (R+25)

Brownington, Charles, Derby, Holland,

Represented by: Bob Lewis (R) & Scott Wheeler (R-retiring)

Talk about digging deep.  If Democrat Lisa Erwin-Davidson is able to capture this open seat, she’d claim the 14th most Republican seat in the House.  Following Wheeler’s retirement, the Democrat has put herself in a good position to snatch the second seat, staying even in fundraising with incumbent Lewis.

She’ll face an uphill battle at the ballot box though.  In 2008, both Republicans finished within a point of each other, a solid 11 points ahead of each of the Democrats.  60% of the district is composed of Derby, where Douglas underperformed in 2008 compared to the rest of the district.  There’s no real Democratic base to draw from in this district, and the roughly ten percent of the vote that comes in from Morgan (R+35) will bend heavily Republican, so it’s going to take a real across the board effort for Erwin-Davidson to sneak into this seat.

Windham 1 (R+1)

Guilford, Vernon

Represented by: Patty O’Donnell (R-retiring)

Windham-1 represents one of the best pick-up opportunities for Democrats this cycle.  Outgoing representative Patty O’Donnell had been serving in the 3rd most Democratic district represented by a Republican.  Keep in mind that though the district bends slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, Vermont is Democratic enough that this seat should be reliably Democratic – Kathy Pellett and Martha Heath sit in similarly Democratic districts.

Both the Republican, Mike Hebert, and the Democrat, Richard Davis have raised over $2000, with Hebert possessing a $600 edge in fundraising.  They’ll have to contend with one of the most ideologically interesting districts.  Guilford (D+18) and Vernon (R+22) split the district 50/50, forcing the candidates to win over two towns with completely opposite ideologies. Case in point: Vernon swung for Obama by only 7 Votes and saw Douglas run up a 30 point margin over Symington and Pollina, while in Guilford Obama racked up a 50 point margin and Symington and Pollina combined for a 30 point edge over Douglas.  

It’ll be interesting to see the different results in the two towns once they are finalized, but this is a seat that Democrats should be able to pick up if Vermont bucks the national trend and votes Democratic on Tuesday.

Addison 5 (R+1)

Bridport, New Haven, Weybridge

Represented by: Chris Bray (D)

If Windham-1 is a seat Democrats should pick up, Addison-5 is one they should hopefully be able to hold.  Just slightly more Democratic than the seat in Windham, Chris Bray’s failed Lt. Governor bid has opened up a seat for Republicans to try to capitalize on.

This match-up will be a re-match of the 2000 race in this seat, between former representative Harvey Smith and Democratic business leader/educator Spencer Putnam.  While Smith won round one, and served until Bray unseated him in 2006, Putnam isn’t taking chances this time. Having raised just shy of $10000, Putnam has built up a $6000 fundraising advantage over the former representative, and has waged an aggressive campaign.  Smith enjoys a name recognition advantage, but as long as Putnam keeps things even in Bridport, he should be able to bring this race home.

Washington 3-1 (R+14)

Barre City

Represented by: Paul Poirier (I)

Porier’s race is probably the most intriguing to me on the ballot this year.  Towards the end of the 2009 session, Poirier announced he was leaving the party to more effectively represent organized labor in the House.  While there were rumbling that this might be to ward off a Progressive challenger, nothing materialized, with only Republican opposition to oppose.

That being said, it doesn’t make Poirier’s road back to the statehouse any easier.  His district sits on the far end of Republican districts represented by a liberal, and in 2008 he was only able to manage a 51-49 win. Republican challenger Leo Valliere has doubled Poirier’s fundraising, having already spent more than Poirier has raised all cycle.  While Poirier has picked up endorsements from all across the spectrum including Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon, losing the Democratic label on the ticket could cost him some votes.  Poirier’s aware of the risk however, and made some waves earlier this fall by taking the odd step of hiring Amy Shollenberger as a paid campaign consultant in a state legislative race.  He’ll need all the strategic support he can get if he plans on serving an eighth term in Montpelier.

Windsor-Orange 1 (R+11)

Tunbridge, Royalton

Represented by: David Ainsworth (R)

Ainsworth must feel like he got incredibly unlucky with his challenger this year.  While his seat is by no means safely Republican, in a year that’s supposed to be exciting for the party it is the kind of seat you don’t have to worry about.  Unfortunately for them, parties usually don’t have to prepare for a challenger like Sarah Buxton.

The former Dean administration senior staffer and congressional campaign manager Buxton has raised over $13000 in her challenge, pushing Ainsworth into a difficult place.  Ainsworth narrowly edged his Democratic opposition 51-49 in 2008, and with this kind of challenge, it’s hard to see how this seat will stay Republican, especially in two towns that have steeply trended Democratic over the past decade.

Washington 1 (D+6)

Fayston, Waitsfield, Warren

Represented by: Adam Greshin (I)

Right-leaning independent Greshin faces a challenge from Democrat Mac Rood in what should be a safe Democratic district.  There is only one Republican in a district more Democratic than Washington 1, and Greshin’s 52-48 edge in 2008 doesn’t leave much room for error.  That being said it hasn’t seemed to bother the incumbent, who has been outraised four to one this cycle, with his only contribution coming from his own checkbook.

The independent label may have protected Greshin from anti-Republican sentiment last cycle, but Democrats will benefit from (at least) a much closer gubernatorial race in a seat where they have waltzed to victory in the past, as well as the presence of Anthony Pollina on the ballot, who did well here in 2008.  Rood’s funding edge and party label will probably be enough to reduce Greshin to a one-term legislator.

UPDATE: I’ve added a few more that were asked about in the comments, though the analysis is a little lighter than the ones above.

Windsor 4 (R+3)

Hartland, West Windsor

Represented by: Steve Adams (R)

With Adams retirement, his 2008 challenger John Bartholomew stands a good chance to pick up a seat in this swing district.  Bartholowmew only lost by around 80 votes last time around, carrying West Windsor but losing by ~100 in Hartland, and so with the incumbent out of the way, it should be his race to lose, especially given that he’s outraised his opponent by around 800 dollars.

In terms of its makeup, the district has taken a serious Democratic turn over the past decade – both towns just barely pulled the lever for Gore in 2000, while giving nearly 70% to Obama in 2008.  They haven’t warmed up to Dems on the statewide level yet however, with Douglas always carrying comfortable margins around +15. This is the fifth most Democratic seat Republicans hold, and is 2nd to Patty O’Donnell’s Windsor-1 if you only look at single-member seats.

Windsor 6-2 (R+3)

Hartford

Represented by: Charles Bohi (D) & John Clerkin (R-retiring)

This seat is virtually identical in partisan makeup to Windsor 4, so there’s not too much to discuss there.  Democrats narrowly missed out on this one in 2008, with the 3rd place Democrat only 1.9% behind Clerkin.  Both sides are fielding a full slate, so that advantage won’t exist, but this is as good of a pick-up opportunity as any given how few seats are left for the Dems to snatch up.

Chittenden 7-1 (D+0)

Colchester

Represented by: Jim Condon (D) & John Zenie (D-retiring)

The only way Dems should lose this seat is if their candidate doesn’t want it that badly.  Condon is certainly safe, but his ticketmate Erin Bessy has done herself little good, only raising $400 over the course of the campaign.  The Republican opposition isn’t blowing anyone out of the water – Bob Bouchard is waging somewhat of a campaign having raised just over $1000, but the other Republican nominee looks like a standard case of a sponge.

To give you an idea of where this seat rests on the spectrum, it’s right next to my district, Chittenden 6-2 (D+0), in Essex Junction, and Kurt Wright’s seat in Chittenden 3-1 (D+1). A win for Bouchard would seat him in the 3rd most Democratic district represented by a Republican.

Thanks to everyone who stayed with me through my analysis, hopefully it sheds a little more light on what should be some of the most interesting House races of the night – though I am sure there will be a handful of surprises I haven’t looked at.  And as for the VDI, following the conclusion of the 2010 election, I hope to update the database to reflect this year’s results, and find a place for the rankings online, so that it can be available for anyone to look at whenever they choose.  In the meantime, if you have questions about specific districts, let me know in the comments.  And given that we’re close to election day, I just want to make one last campaign pitch – if you’re voting in Chittenden County on election day, make sure you make one of your State Senate votes ends up with Philip Baruth.  It’s not every day you get to vote for a candidate that you  know will be accessible and transparent, and I’m proud to have him to vote for in my first “real” election.