UPDATE: VPR reports the first of it's results, and it is a statistical tie, well within the 4% margin of error: Dubie 44 – Shumlin 43. Independents are reportedly leaning Dubie, but if I heard right, Dubie's negatives are higher than Shumlin's (I heard wrong – see diary above for details). Maybe all of this is not what we'd prefer to see, but it's not good news for Brian Dubie and the Republicans who aren't used to being in a fight and the predictions/analysis below is more or less relevant given the results, so I'll let it stand. Sounds like undecideds are even lower than I expected at 8%. Rebumping the diary to the top.

Whether you'll think tomorrow's VPR-commissioned poll from Mason-Dixon is good news or bad news largely depends on what sort of expectations you're proceeding under. While we don't get the numbers until sometime tomorrow, we can take a look at the buzz in the media and on the streets, the limited previous polls and combine that with what we know about Vermont voters and make some pretty good guesses.

First of all, here's the Shumlin-Dubie polling to date, going back into the primary (and via pollster):

Pollster Dates N/Pop Dubie Shumlin Other Undecided Margin

Rasmussen 9/13/10 500 LV 46 49 2 3 +3D

Rasmussen 6/17/10 500 LV 55 36 6 4 +19R

Rasmussen 3/18/10 500 LV 51 33 6 10 +18R

We witnessed a peculiarly unique phenomenon when the Rasmussen poll came out; all the analysts and pundit-types falling all over themselves reminding us how unreliable Rasmussen is (this is usually the blogs' job, given that Ras skews R). Why the sudden skepticism? Because the conventional wisdom promoted by the conventionally wise is that this race is “Dubie's to lose.” Since that last poll didn't back that wisdom up, it becomes unreliable.

But Ras was basically right – this race is close, and the Mason-Dixon poll will also show a dead heat, well within the margin of error (which is roughly 3.9%).

So here's what we're going to see in tomorrow's results: Whichever candidate comes out on top will only be leading by 1 or 2 percentage points, and that means dead heat. It almost doesn't matter whether Dubie or Shumlin ends up leading, because this thing is that tight. Undecideds will be in the 10-15% range, leaving both candidates in the low-mid 40s.

All of which will be good news for Shumlin. 42-44% is the historic statewide Republican base vote. If Dubie has no more than that at this point, he needs to be worried. To get a sense of the dynamics underway, look to the self-identifying independents. When Republicans win at the statewide level, these voters break their way, but according to reports, Dubie campaign internal polling has shown his negatives rising among this group.

Dubie needs to show a statistically meaningful lead among this group. If he and Shumlin are even tied, it suggests a bad trend for the Lieutenant Governor, and implies positive momentum for Shumlin (even though Shumlin's negatives will no doubt be higher than we'd like). If this turns out to be the case (and I expect the indys will, in fact, be a clean split), Shumlin has good prospects as long as he has a strong GOTV operation (and doesn't do anything stupid). 

Not good enough? Want to feel even better about the poll? Then check out this hot-off-the-presses report from Pew Research suggesting that the oft-discussed cell phone gap in polls like this one could be skewing results as much as 4% towards Republicans…