You hear some numbers floating around out there that are pretty dramatic in regards to the 5 person (or 6?) Democratic primary for Governor. Shay Totten says the winner might only need 12,000 votes. Philip Baruth has thrown the number 17,000 out there.

Now consider that this week, GMD will get roughly 5400 visitors. I know anecdotally that most folks who view the site only come by once every few days, but there’s a not-insubstantial minority that comes by daily. On the other hand, this is a slow time of year for us, and traffic goes markedly up during the session, so lets say 5000 is a safe weekly bet overall – certainly when things get going. And I daresay that our readership is overwhelmingly inclined to vote in the Democratic primary. In fact, I’m willing to bet its upwards of 90% of readers. And 90% of 5000 is 4500.

Compared to 12,000? That’s 38% of the needed votes to win the right to face Brian Dubie. 17,000? That’s 26%.

Pretty sobering thought, eh? This puts the GMD community into a mighty, mighty position indeed insofar as picking the Democratic candidate goes.

While I think the readers of this site will be major players in the Dem primary, I do think those numbers are off. There is no good comparison to come up with projected turnout numbers for our gubernatorial free-for-all. Most likely, folks are looking back at 2006’s high-profile primary for Lieutenant Governor between current candidate Matt Dunne and Former House Democratic Leader John Tracy of Burlington.

In that race, 34,690 Vermonters picked up Democratic Party ballots statewide. If that’s the metric, then Totten is assuming that whoever reaches 35% in the 5-6 way race likely takes the prize, and Baruth is assuming a just shy of 50% threshold. Not unreasonable assumptions.

But in truth, I think we’re in uncharted territory, and that 2006 turnout number is way, way off. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say we may well see that number very nearly double.

There are a lot of differences between this go around and 2006 – and every one of those differences equals more votes. In no particular order:

• It’s the Governor’s race, not the Lite gov. Big difference. Duh.
• 5 candidates instead of 2. Double duh. In and of itself, that would increase numbers, but the geographic spread is significant. Instead of two counties’ local candidates in play driving up turnout in those counties (Chittenden and Windsor), you’re going to have candidates from Chittenden and Windsor, as well as the Democratic vote mines of Washington and Windham (and Lamoille too).
• It’s starting much earlier. More time = more press = more interest = more recognition of the race and the candidates among the greater electorate.
• It’s starting earlier part 2: More field. Symington’s late start last cycle meant she depended to an unhealthy degree on paid media. Starting farther out, you’re looking at the long haul, and that means field. With 5 or 6 campaigns actively in the field for the better part of a year, building infrastructure and contacting voters…. well, the effect on turnout will be dramatic.
• The entire 2010 legislative session will take place in the full-on throes of the longer election season. Expect bigger, bolder moves and attempts by the candidates to distinguish themselves, which equals more media, as well as more engagement by – and influence of – constituency and issue groups… who will be speaking to (and engaging) their members.
• Nearly every candidate has already appeared on at least one statewide ballot. The name recognition stage of primary campaign development will be comparatively trivial.
• Early paid media. I remember one, very effective ad from Matt Dunne in his race with John Tracy. There’s already a lot of money in this race with a long way to go. Expect unprecedented primary campaign ads for Vermont, raising the profile and the interest even further.
• Progressive engagement. These candidates will continue to differentiate themselves from each other, and without a Progressive candidate (or with the usual Progressive candidate – Anthony Pollina – fully in the mix with his fellow lefties), many (I daresay most) Progs will be inclined to pick a horse and engage in the primary.
• Legislative engagement. The Democratic House and Senate caucuses tend to be relative non-entities in the gubernatorial campaign (to the perennial chagrin and frustration of the Democratic candidates). There are already strong feelings about this race among Dems in the legislature, and it’s likely these folks will more strongly engage as ambassadors for their favored candidates at the district level, likely turning out more of their constituents.

Yup. We’re in a whole new world here. A world that I truly believe could lead to two votes for every one in the Tracy/Dunne affair.

But we’ll go ahead and dial it down a little bit from that. Let’s say, ohhh… a turnout of 60,000.

Now its likely over the next year that 2 or 3 front runners will coalesce from the crowd. Sure, you can say 50%+1 wins it, and set a goal of 30,000 votes – but that doesn’t really reflect reality. If its down to 2 real leaders 45% or 27,000 is a safe goal. If – as I suspect is more likely – the race sugars out to a 3-way, Totten’s 35%, or 21,000, probably wins it (assuming that’s where he did indeed derive that number from – either way, its a good thumbnail).

However you slice it – even with such a dramatic increase in turnout – these are still teensy number goals for a high profile, relatively big money race. It means that, if the field operations get up and running, candidates may well be able to ID virtually every voter they need for get out the vote efforts. Pretty wild, that.

Of course, in such a small state with a number of choices who are all so well known to primary voters, those IDs will be soft indeed – and highly fluid in response to every move each candidate makes – or chooses not to make.

In any event, it’s a new ballgame for Vermont politics, and if anybody tells you they know exactly how it’s all going to go, tell ’em they’re full of crap.

And yeah, that includes me, especially.

Lots more on this to come – including some musings on what each candidate may need to do to come out the other end victorious…